Comments on: Don’t swallow Vimovo investment advice

By: Phil Braun

Phil Braun — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 18:45:28 +0000

Ok, one last tidbit. This is from the warning label on Naproxen:

“NSAIDs can also increase your risk of serious effects on the stomach or intestines, including bleeding or perforation (forming of a hole). These conditions can be fatal and gastrointestinal effects can occur without warning at any time while you are taking an NSAID. Older adults may have an even greater risk of these serious gastrointestinal side effects.”

Many folk may only self-prescribe Prilosec when they feel the need due to symptoms. However, as fatal ulcers can occur without warning, especially in the elderly (though most like to be treating arthritis) then it’s even more important to be certain that proper care is being given.

By: Phil Braun

Phil Braun — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 18:36:39 +0000

I’d like to correct myself (though not all my spelling errors).

COSTCO Prilosec $26 for 42 20mg pills = $.62/pill

generic EC Naprosyn 500mg $105 for 100 pills = $1.05/pill. (from a popular canadian online pharmacy; EC Naprosyn not listed on Costco site although non-EC is.

Total combo price = $1.67/pill. Though I’ll grant that you were likely using a metaphoric nickel in your article.

By: Phil Braun

Phil Braun — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 18:19:36 +0000

I tend to agree, and also, disagree with your summation. I don’t expect Vimovo to reach blockbuster status (what’s that anyway, $1bil annual sales) but it is still clearly meeting an unmet need, especially with COX style drugs off the shelves. An despite B.S.’s broker most analysts are predicting $200-300mil in annual sales, perhaps peaking around $500-$700mil. Not exactly blockbuster but not exactly chump change, even on the low end and with very little development costs associated (as POZEN did all the development work).

I’m not so sure about your math either; enteric-coated naproxin is more like $.30-$.50/pill as it prilosec (even generic is more than $0.06/pill you quote, unless perhaps if one were to buy a gallon jug of them at Costco). I estimate the combo at closer to $.80/pill, which is obviously still a lot cheaper than $6. Prescription Vimovo will likely set back consumers about $5-10 (after insurance) for 30-days worth. So your margin is reduced by about an order of magnitude.

And the issue isn’t whether or not it’s a scumbaggy thing to do my marketing Vimovo (pawn off old product in fresh wrapper), but whether or not it will succeed. There is no small market for combo products and for many patients the convenience is worth the added expense.

But again, I agree that it’s still smallish potatoes for AZN. I would think that POZEN would actually benefit more (given their size) even with only a 10% royalty.