Ashley Wilson – Daily Journal of Commerce /news/author/ashleywilson/ Building and Construction News in Portland, Oregon and the Pacific Northwest Mon, 26 Sep 2011 20:42:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.6 /files/2023/08/favicon.webp Ashley Wilson – Daily Journal of Commerce /news/author/ashleywilson/ 32 32 Investors need courage in down times to see opportunities /news/2011/09/26/investors-need-courage-in-down-times-to-see-opportunities/ Mon, 26 Sep 2011 18:52:28 +0000 /?p=76821 I’m starting to receive phone calls that are reminiscent of 2008. It’s understandable that investors are jumpy about today’s economy and market environment. Jobs and housing numbers are depressing. U.S. […]

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Ashley Wilson

I’m starting to receive phone calls that are reminiscent of 2008. It’s understandable that investors are jumpy about today’s economy and market environment. Jobs and housing numbers are depressing. U.S. credit was downgraded last month. Europe’s debt problems seem to be accelerating. Terrorism and unrest in the Middle East threaten global stability.

The wounds from the financial crisis are still not healed and because of this, most investors are scared and blind to opportunities that exist today. Albert Einstein once said: “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”

History is full of stories of smart investors who saw opportunity during periods of great difficulty and turmoil. In October 2008, the New York Times published an Op-Ed piece by Warren Buffett. He said, “Bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked down price.” He went on to say, “Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.”

While the rest of the world was busy panicking, Buffett was busy looking for opportunities. In fall 2008, amid the financial crisis, Buffett was making strategic purchases while many others were selling.

In times of uncertainty, successful investors look for potential opportunities. In my opinion, too many investors aren’t successful because they are too scared to open their eyes to opportunity. They end up making emotional mistakes that prove to be costly.

According to Ned Davis Research, an equity investor who remained fully invested during the last 20 years made a 9 percent annual return. However, if an investor missed the 20 best days during those 20 years, the annual return was a dismal 3 percent.

Because no one owns a functioning crystal ball, selling into the teeth of a market downturn historically produces poor returns. Not only are investors who sell locking in their losses, but they are limiting their recovery potential.

Looking back at the 27 bear markets since the Great Depression, the average return in the 12 months following the bottom was 37.8 percent. However, according to Ned Davis Research, an investor who missed the first six months of the recovery by holding cash, would have had a return of only 7.7 percent. Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Many opportunities exist today. Did you know that 70 percent of the S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates in the last quarter? Profits are expected to continue to rise, because most corporations are much healthier than the consumer and the government. Most large U.S. companies have low debt and solid balance sheets. It may not be as difficult to find a profitable, growing business with excellent fundamentals at an attractive price.

One of my favorite companies (a household consumer staple that shall remain nameless) continues to innovate, introduce new products and capitalize on growth prospects in the world’s emerging markets. Over the past 10 years, its sales have grown 7 percent annually, profits have grown 10.5 percent annually, and the dividend – which exceeds the yield on the 10-year Treasury by a significant margin – has been growing at 11.5 percent annually. The stock has recovered all of its losses from the financial crisis, and then some. In fact it reached new all-time highs recently.

Volatility is going to be a normal part of this recovery, which will scare many investors out of stocks, but present great opportunities for investors with strong stomachs. The key is whether investors have courage to open their eyes and take advantage of what is in front of them. It may mean the difference between either a financially secure retirement or one filled with financial hardship.

Ashley Wilson is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc. in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com. Note that an investment in stocks will fluctuate and may be worth more or less than the principal invested when sold.

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Want to be a better investor? Play more golf /news/2011/07/25/want-to-be-a-better-investor-play-more-golf/ Mon, 25 Jul 2011 17:46:22 +0000 /news/2011/07/25/want-to-be-a-better-investor-play-more-golf/ Golf can be an emotionally and mentally draining sport. Most golfers have a love-hate relationship with the game. Bitter memories of lost matches, missed putts and embarrassing mistakes can linger […]

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Ashley Wilson

Golf can be an emotionally and mentally draining sport. Most golfers have a love-hate relationship with the game. Bitter memories of lost matches, missed putts and embarrassing mistakes can linger for years. At the same time, a peaceful moment standing on a tee box on a warm summer evening can be blissful.

Golf also can provide powerful life lessons about emotional intelligence. As an avid competitive golfer and a financial adviser, I have begun to notice how certain lessons from golf can apply to money management.

Maintain composure

Last month I played in a tournament where a competitor was playing beautifully. He was stringing pars together and was on track to shoot in the mid-70s – a very good score for someone with an 8-handicap.

On the par-5 16th hole, the round turned. He hit his approach shot short of the green, behind a bunker and a tree; then he hit into the bunker and proceeded to use his wedge to prune a nearby tree. He cursed his stupidity as he walked into the bunker and then hit a mediocre shot onto the green. He needed three puts to finish with a triple bogey. His anger did not subside and he ended up carding an 80.

For most golfers, a tee shot into a hazard or a fat chip shot often will lead to more mistakes because few of us are able to take a deep breath, accept the result, refocus and move on. Instead, the typical golfer will slam their club into their bag, utter an expletive and angrily stomp up to the ball. Focus is loss and more risk is taken in an attempt to make up for the lost strokes. A bogey turns into a double or a triple bogey and the angry golfer claims the day is ruined.

Most golfers would play much better if they could maintain their composure through the spectrum of emotions, from anger to elation. Investors would make better decisions if they could do the same.

Composure is about keeping emotions under control. It’s staying calm, despite setbacks. Most investors feel comfortable owning stocks only when they see their portfolio increase. When stock values decline, investors lose their composure and make poor decisions – buying high and selling low. The result is consistently poor performance.

The next time a stock takes a dip, try taking a deep breath to remain calm. Then look to move on and forget about the result.

Accept losses

The best golfers in the world will lose more tournaments than they win. Rory McIlroy had an embarrassing and unforgettable collapse at the Masters this year, but he bounced back to pummel the competition at the U.S. Open in June.

Similarly, most investors have experienced significant losses in their stock portfolios over the last several years. Losing is painful and has driven many investors into the perceived safety of cash and bonds and out of stocks, perhaps forever.

Investors who turn from stocks because of losses they’ve experienced are potentially setting themselves up for a riskier loss scenario – the loss of purchasing power. Inflation is a silent killer that will eat away at hard-earned assets. Stocks are one of the few investment vehicles that have historically kept pace with inflation over many decades.

Good golfers and smart investors have been burned, and they’ll likely be burned again. The reason they become successful is because they accept what happens, move on, and stay on the path to victory.

After a loss, try working to improve your greatest weakness. You’ll become more resilient and boost your game.

Focus on the target

I learned an incredible, game-altering principle from Bob Rotella, a famous sports psychologist. The idea is simple, but consistent execution is difficult and requires discipline and practice.

Virtually every great golfer focuses on one thing during every shot – the target. On a tee shot, it might be a lone tall tree in the distance. On a breaking putt, it might be a spike mark on the green.

Focusing on the target will keep the mind from drifting to mechanical swing thoughts or negative self-talk such as: “Don’t hit it in the water like last time.” According to Rotella, focusing on a target allows the brain and body to work together in harmony.

Focus in golf is akin to setting financial goals and keeping them in mind – always. By holding those goals closely, an investor will be less likely to react to a weak earnings or jobs report that sends stocks tumbling.

We are constantly bombarded with information and news about the world around us, and most of it negative. Without long-term goals to provide a framework for decision-making, an investor is likely to get caught up in the daily noise and make poor decisions.

Golfers and investors who manage emotions effectively by practicing composure, acceptance and focus may be well on the way to success.

Remember this famous quote from Arnold Palmer that applies to golf, life, work, family and investing: “I’ve always made a total effort, even when the odds seemed entirely against me. I never quit trying; I never felt that I didn’t have a chance to win.”

Ashley Wilson is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc. in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com. Note that an investment in stocks will fluctuate and may be worth more or less than the principal invested when sold.

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Start saving like it’s 2035 /news/2011/03/21/start-saving-like-its-2035/ Mon, 21 Mar 2011 20:06:57 +0000 /?p=69257 Choosing immediate gratification instead of waiting for a better long-term payoff is a common vice among Americans. Every day we make choices that aren’t necessarily good for us, but they […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

Choosing immediate gratification instead of waiting for a better long-term payoff is a common vice among Americans. Every day we make choices that aren’t necessarily good for us, but they feel good so we trick ourselves into thinking they are the right decisions.

Someone may choose to eat cake today because of a co-worker’s birthday, despite previously deciding to give up sweets. Another person may forgo 401k contributions to buy a new car. Somebody else may believe that an iPad is more important than a Roth contribution. Each one of these decisions may have short-term benefits, but also long-term detriments.

This propensity toward immediate gratification has created a serious retirement crisis in the United States. According to a recent study from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, the average worker between the ages of 55-64 has saved only $78,000 for retirement. A sustainable withdrawal rate, say 4 percent a year, from $78,000 would provide only $260 per month in income for the first year of retirement.

Of course, $78,000 might be adequate if retirement stayed the same over several decades. Many older retirees today enjoy a healthy pension and Social Security income. For many retirees in this scenario, their retirement portfolio functions as supplemental income or a potential safety net.

But most workers today may not enjoy the same savings and steady income stream in retirement. Only 20 percent of workers today will have a pension in retirement. In addition, Social Security is under tremendous strain, and recent projections peg 2035 as the year Social Security will completely run out of money. So it’s now up to individuals to save for retirement.

Here are a few tips to help boost retirement income for folks preparing to retire in three years or in 30.

First, answer this question: How much are you saving annually for retirement – $5,000, $30,000, nothing?

Next, determine whether there is a shortfall. An Internet search of “retirement needs calculator” yielded 1.4 million results. Most calculators are free and user-friendly. These calculators tend to be overly simple, but they are a good start. For a more personalized calculation that considers a variety of variables, ask a financial adviser for help.

Then, if a gap exists, fill it. In most cases, this is the step where only motivated and disciplined investors will succeed. Though this process some people may discover that they are saving $5,000 a year but need to save $15,000 a year to live comfortably in retirement. So they need to figure out how and where they can make up the difference. This will usually require some budgeting and cutting back in areas, but it can be done.

Lastly, go on autopilot. Be sure that savings take place automatically. Set up a salary deferral percentage for a 401(k). Set up IRA contributions to be deducted regularly from paychecks or transferred from bank accounts. Doing so will keep temptations from jeopardizing retirement.

I believe building wealth doesn’t necessarily require exceptional luck or know-how. Certain internal factors, more than external factors, most often will determine a person’s financial wealth. Is the person disciplined, patient and capable of making logical decisions? If so, then building wealth may be within reach.

Sacrifices may need to be made during working years, but such efforts could help clear a path to financial freedom in retirement.

Ashley Wilson is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com.

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Roth 401(k) plan could increase retirement income by 50 percent /news/2011/01/24/roth-401k-plan-could-increase-retirement-income-by-50-percent/ Mon, 24 Jan 2011 19:33:05 +0000 /?p=66251 The Roth 401(k) can be an attractive add-on feature to a company retirement plan. Just like its twin, the Roth IRA, the Roth 401(k) allows investors to make retirement contributions […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

The Roth 401(k) can be an attractive add-on feature to a company retirement plan.

Just like its twin, the Roth IRA, the Roth 401(k) allows investors to make retirement contributions with tax-free distributions at retirement. The trade-off for investors is that contributions go into the account on an after-tax basis, so there is no benefit from the tax-deduction up front.

Investors with higher incomes for years have experienced frustration because of the eligibility restrictions on Roth IRA contributions. However, eligibility rules are different in a Roth 401(k) plan, so any participant can save as much as $16,500 in 2011 (or up to $22,000 for people older than 50).

The IRS allowed 401(k) plans to add this feature beginning in 2006, and their popularity has increased significantly over the last five years. It’s no surprise because Roth 401(k) plans have some attractive features:

  • No taxes on qualified distributions
  • Employer-matching contributions can be made on designated Roth contributions
  • No requirement to withdraw money at age 70½, unlike traditional IRA and 401(k) accounts

There are several free online calculators that show how the Roth 401(k) and the traditional 401(k) measure up. For example, assume that an investor has 15 years until retirement, annual 401(k) contributions are $16,500, and the account is growing 8 percent annually. The investor’s current tax bracket is 35 percent and will remain the same in retirement years. According to one calculator, retirement income from a Roth 401(k) would be 54 percent higher compared to a traditional 401(k). Even if the investor’s tax bracket declines to 15 percent in retirement years, income would still be 18 percent higher than a traditional 401(k).

There are two main drawbacks to the Roth 401(k) option. First, any contributions made are irrevocable. An election of pre-tax contributions cannot be changed once they have been designated to a Roth. Second, withdrawals could be taxable under certain circumstances. To avoid taxation, an investor must wait until age 59½ or five years from when designated Roth contributions were first made to the plan – whichever is longer.

For example, let’s say an investor retired this year at the age of 65. The investor began contributing to the Roth 401(k) three years ago and would like to draw income out of that account. Taxes would be owed on any earnings on the amount withdrawn.

The process of adding a Roth 401(k) option to an existing 401(k) plan is actually fairly simple and painless. All that is required is an amendment to the current plan document. The cost of an amendment is usually about $200. A plan administrator can take care of it.

The bottom line for a Roth 401(k) is that you will miss out on the tax break on contributions in your working years, but you won’t have the tax bite on withdrawals in your retirement years.

Ashley Wilson is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com. Neither the author not Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. offer tax advice. Consult with a tax adviser before taking action.

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Discerning investors may still find value in municipal bonds /news/2010/11/22/discerning-investors-may-still-find-value-in-municipal-bonds/ Mon, 22 Nov 2010 17:53:48 +0000 /?p=62492 Investing in a world of uncertainty – especially with regard to taxes – can be tricky. For investors in a high tax bracket, consider adding tax-advantaged municipal bonds to a […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

Investing in a world of uncertainty – especially with regard to taxes – can be tricky. For investors in a high tax bracket, consider adding tax-advantaged municipal bonds to a fixed-income portfolio.

The 10-year treasuries are yielding about 2.9 percent. That’s bad enough to cause a stomachache. Unfortunately, high quality corporate bonds aren’t much better. Ten-year, AA-rated corporate bonds are yielding between 2.5 and 4 percent to maturity. Ten-year, general obligation AA-rated Oregon municipal bonds are yielding about 3 percent.

Upon first glance, municipal bonds don’t look especially attractive compared to some of their taxable counterparts. But in most cases, investors won’t pay any state or federal taxes on interest income, so for Oregon residents in the top state and federal tax brackets, the equivalent yield is 5.14 percent. If the Bush tax cuts expire and the top federal bracket moves up to 39.6 percent in January 2011, then the tax equivalent yield may go up to about 5.4 percent – more than double the treasury yield.

Despite the possibility of higher taxes, many investors are still frozen in low-yielding cash and treasuries. The current fiscal problems in the state and around the country are a cause for concern for many municipal investors. Even the “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett, has expressed concern about an acceleration of municipal defaults as municipalities face severe budget crises.

In the past, defaults increased after economic slowdowns, especially in areas that have experienced a rapid booms and busts. But if investors do their homework and follow a few principles, they should be able to avoid most of the default risk in this market.

First, look at the underlying bond rating. This gives an indication of the credit quality of the issuer. Many municipal bonds still carry insurance. Since the financial crisis, this insurance has essentially become a worthless guarantee in most cases. Investors must now scrutinize the underlying rating of the issuer. For example, an insured municipal bond might carry a AA+ credit rating, but the underlying rating of the issuer might be A- or even lower.

Second, understand where the highest risks are in the municipal market. Industrial revenue, multifamily housing, and non-hospital health-care bonds historically account for more than 50 percent of the defaults in the municipal market. General obligation bonds, by contrast, are backed by the full faith and credit of the issuer, which has the ability to raise taxes to service the municipal debt.

Essential service bonds, like sewer, water, and electric utility bonds, also have particularly low default rates thanks to their natural monopolies and consistent revenue streams, even during economic downturns. “Escrowed-to-maturity” municipal bonds are another option for cautious investors. The issuer of these bonds has already set aside the funds in an escrow account to pay off the bond.

I believe investors shouldn’t wait for taxes to go up or the economy to improve before pursuing these opportunities. Also, note that income from particular municipal bond issues may or may not be subject to state and alternative minimum taxes. Remember to research thoroughly and consult a tax and financial adviser before investing.

Ashley Wilson, CRPC, is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com.

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4 tips for broad market index funds /news/2010/09/27/think-twice-about-the-broad-market-index-fund/ /news/2010/09/27/think-twice-about-the-broad-market-index-fund/#comments Mon, 27 Sep 2010 17:24:31 +0000 /?p=59682 Passive investing through index funds has become a popular investment strategy since these funds originated in the 1970s. Index funds are an inexpensive way to diversify. They allow investors to […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

Passive investing through index funds has become a popular investment strategy since these funds originated in the 1970s. Index funds are an inexpensive way to diversify. They allow investors to buy a market index, like the S&P 500, without actually buying all 500 companies in the index.

Investors have more than $700 billion in index funds, and the market continues to grow with new funds becoming available all the time. However, over the last decade, the strategy of buying and holding a broad stock market index fund has not profited. Buy-and-hold may not work, but investors can still use index funds to navigate a bear market – if they take a more active approach.

John Bogle, one of the most influential people in the investment world, is famous for his convincing claim that investing in a broad market index, like the S&P 500, is far better than buying actively managed funds.

As a finance student in college, I was taught the gospel according to John (Bogle) and Burton Malkiel. Both are proponents of the efficient market hypothesis, a bedrock theory that states that financial markets are efficient and that one cannot consistently achieve returns in excess of market returns. The translation for investors is that they are better off investing in a diversified stock market index fund than trying to beat the market through stock picking or market timing.

It’s no coincidence that index funds’ popularity soared during the 1980s and 1990s, a time period marked by perhaps the greatest bull market for stocks ever. The average annual return in the S&P 500 was 15.8 percent during the bull market that began in 1982 and ended in spring 2000. In a raging bull market, the primary indicator of success is simply participation, which is why indexing worked so well in this market environment.

Unfortunately, bull markets don’t last forever and the current bear market has now been hanging around for more than 10 years. Loyal indexers probably aren’t too happy these days. The average annual return for the S&P 500 index has been -2.4 percent over the last 10 years.

Passive investing through broad market index funds can be a losing strategy in bear markets, when buy-and-hold tends not to work. So what is a Bogle disciple to do? The answer is simple: buy low and sell high. This is easier said than done and requires investors to actively manage their portfolios.

Here are four tips to help investors use index funds to navigate the storm:

1. Don’t allocate all of your stock funds to one broad index. Look at specific industries and sectors. Which sectors are poised to do well in the likely scenario that the recovery is slow? We like the technology and energy sectors.

2. Take advantage of growth trends. We believe growth in the next few years will be slow in developed foreign markets but healthy in emerging markets. And we think U.S. large-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations, offering a good buying opportunity.

3. Position your portfolio for the most likely scenario. Do you believe there will be deflation or runaway inflation? How will the domestic tax and regulatory environment impact your portfolio? How will interest rate changes impact your fixed income investments? What geopolitical risks could threaten stability in the markets? On the fixed income side, we like municipal bonds, inflation protection bonds, and high quality corporate bonds. We keep bond maturities short to intermediate. We also like hard assets and oil to help protect against a variety of possible risks.

4. Know when to sell. Trends change and you’re not going to be right all the time. Don’t be hasty but know when a particular investment has run its course or isn’t working out like you hoped. Common sense is a key component here.

Use index funds to adopt a more active approach to investing, and beware of becoming too passive in this environment. If this bear market lasts another five to 10 years without any notable progress in the broad market index, you may just give up on stocks completely if you remain complacent in a broad market index fund.

Ashley Wilson, CRPC, is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com.

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Exit strategies sound better in theory than in practice /news/2010/07/26/exit-strategies-sound-better-in-theory-than-in-practice/ Mon, 26 Jul 2010 16:16:33 +0000 /?p=56888 Many investors look at the past few years and wonder why they didn’t see the financial crisis coming and why they didn’t do something to prevent massive declines in their […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

Many investors look at the past few years and wonder why they didn’t see the financial crisis coming and why they didn’t do something to prevent massive declines in their portfolios. Now, more than ever, our clients are asking us about exit strategies to help preserve gains and minimize losses.

The concept is simple: Set a specific price level below the current price to sell equity. By placing an automatic sell order at a specific price, say 10 to 20 percent below the current price level, losses may be reduced if the stock heads south. If the stock continues higher, an investor can raise the sell price as a way to help lock in profits.

This can be done for an entire portfolio by setting up a manual sell order. Let’s say a $1 million portfolio has roughly half of its value in equities, and the investor wants to minimize equity losses to 10 percent. If the equity side of the portfolio drops by 10 percent, the investor can manually execute a sell order and liquidate the entire equity portfolio to help protect against future losses.

Although this practice sounds good in theory, there are a few limitations that one must consider when applying it in the real world.

This exit strategy may cause an investor to potentially sell at a low point. According to GE Asset Management research, an investor would have made 11.24 percent per year by staying invested in the S&P 500 each and every day during the 30-year period from January 1980 to December 2009. However, if that same investor happened to be on the sideline for the best 15 months of that time, the return was just 6.06 percent. Historically, periods of stock declines are followed by significant gains. If an investor sells at a low point and doesn’t get back in right away, the move could be costly in the long run.

Stock market volatility can trigger a sell unintentionally. Remember the freaky flash crash in May when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,000 points before it recovered from the lows? A $40 stock at the time dropped to 1 cent before recovering to its normal trading range. Many investors had automatic sell orders on their stocks and as a result, their positions were sold even though there was no fundamental reason to sell. The flash crash is a rare event, but a 10 percent correction in the market is surprisingly common. Since the Great Depression there have been 92 10-percent corrections. That’s once every 11 months. So if an automatic sell price is 10 percent below the current price level, there is a likely chance that market volatility will trigger a sell.

Cash is not a long-term investment strategy. The purpose of having an exit strategy for an individual position or an entire equity portfolio is to help protect oneself on the downside. But perhaps the most important question is left unanswered: when to get back in. If a stock portfolio had been liquidated when nearly every asset class dropped in 2008, that investor would have avoided more pain because the market continued to decline until March 2009.

Unfortunately, most investors did not, and still do not, have a plan for getting back into the market. As a result, they missed one of the best market recoveries of their lives – up over 80 percent from the lows. In my opinion, equities should not be permanently abandoned because inflation and taxes are major obstacles to overcome in retirement. Historically, equities are one of the few asset classes that have been able to stay ahead of inflation and taxes over a long period of time.

Exit strategies often require careful watch. If an investor has a mix of investments or an exit strategy for the entire equity portfolio, then the sell order will likely need to be executed manually. A manual sell point requires an investor to constantly monitor investments and account value.

A sell order, executed either manually or automatically, can be costly, especially if an investor is considering liquidating an entire equity portfolio. Costs most likely will be incurred when selling and then buying later. Tax consequences also must be considered.

Keep in mind that given the intense volatility in the stock market, now may not be the best time to implement an exit strategy. Exit strategies are best used during a runaway bull market – think back to the tech bubble in the late 1990s. The use of automatic sell orders here might have been a pretty smart move. In hindsight, all the signs of a bubble were there, but no one knew how long the bull market would last and no one wanted to miss out on the obscene growth at the time. Companies with no real business model and no revenue were trading at astronomical levels.

The dot-com era was touted as a “new paradigm,” and investors believed that prices could only go up. A prominent money manager, Alberto Vilar (who is now serving a 9-year jail sentence for securities fraud), said at the peak of the dot-com bubble that “investors who avoid the Internet sector during the next 5-10 years will miss the biggest explosion of growth and profits ever seen.” Yet 10 years later, the Nasdaq is still 50 percent below its peak. So, when the next strong bull market comes along and enthusiasm returns, keep in mind the decimation caused by the dot-com bubble.

An exit strategy could help investors sleep at night knowing that there is possible protection on the downside, but it ignores and defies many basic principles of solid investing. So, investors considering an exit strategy should think about the potential consequences. It’s important to maintain a long-term view and stay focused on goals. Someone who picks good investments and has the emotional discipline to stay invested in tough times and to cut losses when fundamentals sour, should not need an exit strategy.

Ashley Wilson, CRPC, is a financial adviser with the Wilson Financial Group of Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com.

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The key to unemotional investing /news/2010/04/26/the-key-to-unemotional-investing/ Mon, 26 Apr 2010 17:10:11 +0000 /?p=52302 Most investors would agree that fear and greed can wreak havoc on a nest egg, but no one seems to know what to do about it. An obvious but often […]

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Ashley Wilson
Ashley Wilson

Most investors would agree that fear and greed can wreak havoc on a nest egg, but no one seems to know what to do about it. An obvious but often overlooked way of preventing fear and greed from dictating decisions is to employ a strategy in which emotions are kept in check.

A very simple solution is to use an asset allocation strategy. Asset allocation in its basic form refers to the percentage of a portfolio that is in stocks versus the percentage in bonds. Let’s say a portfolio is allocated 50 percent in stocks and 50 percent in bonds. Here’s how an investor may be able to use the strategy to make unemotional decisions:

Scenario 1 – The stock market goes up 20 percent this year.

If this happens, the portfolio will now be out of balance by about 5 percent, with 55 percent in stocks and 45 percent in bonds. For simplicity, assume that bond values remained unchanged. To rebalance the portfolio, an investor would need to sell stocks and buy bonds. Two things are accomplished by rebalancing: first, risk may be reduced by adjusting the allocation back to where it should be; and second, an opportune time (the market just went up 20 percent) may be capitalized.

Scenario 2 – The stock market goes down 20 percent this year.

The portfolio will again be out of balance, but in the opposite direction. To rebalance, move money from bonds into stocks. Essentially, an investor is putting money into stocks at a market low point.

When focused on keeping allocation balanced, investors are better able to ignore distractions. There is less reason to think so much about what the market is doing today, or when the Fed is going to raise rates, or what unemployment numbers are going to be this month. In the grand scheme of things, these headlines don’t matter much; however, they could impact an investor’s emotions and decisions if a strategy hasn’t been chosen. This strategy allows an investor to maintain a buy-low-and-sell-high mentality, which is always sought but seldom achieved.

Look at your own portfolio. What is your asset allocation? With the market up over 70 percent from the low in March 2009, your asset allocation may have changed significantly. If you haven’t looked at it in a while, you’ll likely need to rebalance. Use this market recovery to make the changes necessary to get on the right path.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. When investing in bonds, it is important to note that as interest rates rise, bond prices will fall.

Ashley Wilson, CRPC, is a financial adviser with Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Inc., member SIPC and NYSE, in Portland. Contact her at 503-499-6260 or wilsonam@stifel.com.

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