Backlog for contractors reached 9.1 months in May and experts said the climb was due in part to data center investment across the nation.

The 9.1 score was from a member survey taken between May 20 to June 3. It was higher by 0.3 months from April and 0.7 months from May 2025, officials said.

“Backlog rose to a nearly three-hear high in May,” said Anirban Basu, chief economist at ABC, in a statement. “This increase largely reflects the massive data center investments taking place across the nation.”

Basu noted 14 percent of ABC members were under contract to work on data centers and experienced higher backlog of 11.6 months compared to firms that aren’t with 8.6 months.

“The way this boom is disproportionately benefiting larger contractors helps to explain why contractor confidence slipped in May even as backlog continued to climb,” he added.

Data center projects have been widely credited with keeping the industry afloat at least since July 2025.

Backlog increased in every region except the South. However, the South remains the region with the longest backlog of 10.3 months and the largest year-over-year increase in backlog of 0.9 months. In the middle states, backlog grew since last year by 0.7 months, according to ABC.

Readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels fell in May, the association’s confidence index showed. However, the readings for the three components were above 50, suggesting growth for the next six months.

The American Institute of Architects reported its fell to 48.3 in April, compared to 49.8 in March. This means the share of architecture firms that reported a decline in billing was more than the share the reported an increase.

National architecture firm billings haven’t crossed the 50-point threshold since January 2023, AIA officials said. Officials noted the value of new design contracts was close to returning to growth and three consecutive months of inquiries of new projects in April.

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A coalition of construction contractors this past Friday filed a lawsuit challenging Gov. Tina Kotek’s executive order that requires project labor agreements for most state projects.

The lawsuit, filed in Marion County Circuit Court, comes after Kotek’s order drew strong backlash in the construction industry. The contractors allege Kotek “does not have the power” under the Oregon constitution to require project labor agreements for state projects, according to the complaint.

“We believe that the governor exceeded her executive powers and created an anti-competitive environment, disregarding the advice of one of her own agencies regarding the added cost to Oregon taxpayers,” Mike Salsgiver, CEO of the Associated General Contractors’ Oregon-Columbia chapter, stated in a news release on Friday.

Kotek’s Dec. 18 order requires project labor agreements be used for state-funded projects when on-site labor costs amount to 15 percent of project costs, which would capture the vast majority of large-scale projects.

It comes as the state prepares to embark on major infrastructure undertakings, including the Interstate 5 Rose Quarter Improvement Project and the Interstate Bridge replacement project.

Matthew Mues, a construction attorney with Davis Wright Tremaine LLP who is not involved in the lawsuit, pointed to studies showing PLAs raise costs.

“If the executive order requiring PLAs on public projects in Oregon is upheld and maintained, it will have an effect on open shop contractors, and it will increase the cost of construction of those public projects,” Mues said.

Kotek’s office and allies in organized labor have argued that PLAs will provide labor peace and certainty for big infrastructure projects.

The governor’s office did not respond to messages seeking comment.

“The last thing Oregonians can afford right now are the higher costs and cost overruns that come with union-only PLAs,” stated Laurie Kendall, president of the Associated Builders and Contractors‘ Pacific Northwest chapter.

“The issue is ripe for adjudication because the Governor has directed all state agencies to comply with the requirements of her executive order immediately,” the complaint states.

The contractors may have reason to hope for relief from the courts after a string of legal victories against similar orders.

In April 2024, AGC and three contractors won a preliminary injunction in Marion County Circuit Court against a community workforce agreement, or CWA, that was entered into between the Oregon Department of Transportation and 37 labor organizations. In that case, Judge Jennifer K. Gardiner said the CWA was “specifically designed to prioritize union labor.”

“To suggest that, because bidding is open to everybody, it necessarily creates an open and equal playing field, is simply false and disingenuous,” Gardiner wrote in her order.

Like the earlier lawsuit, this one opposing the PLA requirement was filed in Marion County, suggesting the contractors like their chances in that court.

“I anticipate based upon the ruling they received on CWAs, that was a motivating factor in filing it in Marion County,” Mues said.

At the federal level, PLAs ran aground in January, when Judge Ryan T. Holte of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims found in favor of contractors who challenged a 2022 executive order by then-President Joe Biden mandating PLAs be used for all federal government construction projects costing $35 million or more.

Holte relied in part on a General Services Administration market survey that found PLAs could be expected to increase costs and decrease bidders’ interest.

The plaintiffs in the new lawsuit include a wide swath of the Oregon construction industry: Associated General Contractors’ Oregon-Columbia chapter, Associated Builders and Contractors’ Pacific Northwest chapter, the Utility Contractors Association of Oregon and Southwest Washington, the National Federation of Independent Business, HP Civil Inc., Hamilton Construction, K&E Excavating Inc., Interlaken Inc., Moore Excavation Inc., Iron Horse LLC, Hatch Western Co. Inc., Hydro-Temp Mechanical Inc., North Santiam Paving Co., Berrien Concrete, American Concrete Co., Kerr Contractors Oregon and Emery & Sons Construction Group.

The contractors are represented by Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt PC of Portland. Kotek is named as the defendant.

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By Ethan Duran
91��Ƶ Newswires

As the end of 2023 edges closer, experts shared their views on the state of the construction industry going forward. According to experts from the nation’s leading contractor associations, certain parts of the construction industry fixated on manufacturing and infrastructure will continue to see prosperity, while some challenges like labor shortages will still likely be universal in 2024.

Top economists from the (ABC) of America and (AGC) of America had a mixed picture for contractors. Most construction sectors grew along with job openings and wage increases. The influx of federal money promised more infrastructure projects, but even those have strings attached.

One thing the experts rejoiced about was the slowing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rates; in mid-December, Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, announced rates would stay between 5.25 percent and 5.55 percent.

“It’s been brighter thanks to the excellent news about inflation at the producer and consumer level, and the (Federal Reserve) expectations for their interest rate targets,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist for AGC. “That’s been a pleasant surprise.”

Supply chain issues traded for financing woes

Contractors were less focused on woes with the supply chain since last year, dropping nearly 30 percentage points since September of 2020 compared to the final quarter of 2023, research by Baltimore-based Sage Policy Group showed. However, concerns over ability to finance projects have doubled since 2022, according to a recent poll.

This was a trade between the number of projects moving forward and the workers needed to build them, said Anirban Basu, who serves as both top economist for ABC and leader of Sage.

“What you’re sensing there is the market is starting to turn a bit. A small proportion saying we’ve got worker challenges and a higher proportion saying we’ve got issues with availability of financing for projects. Those things fit together. If projects aren’t moving forward, you don’t need as many workers and the worker shortage issue is not as great,” Basu said.

Manufacturing took the cake for construction spending in both Sage and AGC’s figures; Sage pinned spending in the sector for 164 percent growth since February of 2020. However, office construction only saw growth of 8 percent and multifamily housing permits skewed downward. Sewage and waste disposal, water supply and commercial construction remained king, evidence of federal infrastructure spending.

“If you’re along for these megaprojects, your economics are different from everyone else’s. If you’re dependent upon small, middle-sized private developers who historically developed office buildings, shopping centers and so forth, I think you’ll face more headwinds going forward,” Basu noted.

Rushmore of concern: Labor availability, materials and the greater economy

Simonson named labor supply and quality the two things most mentioned by frustrated members, followed by worries of a possible recession and materials costs. It’s worth noting Simonson and Basu had different views on whether a recession will happen next year; Simonson didn’t think so, but Basu insisted it will happen.

“Most firms said they’ve seen great improvement in the supply chain and materials costs, while they didn’t come back to where they were before the pandemic, they certainly aren’t rising for most things. The one exception to that is electrical components, switchgears and transformers. The lead times are extreme,” Simonson added.

“We think the percentages would be higher in many places if there were enough qualified applicants,” Simonson said.

Simonson said he thought construction employment would continue to grow, but contractors would likely pay more for labor. The average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees went up 5.9 percent, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It’s gone up consistently month over month, and Simonson predicts the trend will continue contractors look to fill positions.

The indexed average for cost of materials and related trucking services has been about flat in the last few months, but customers reported increases for certain types of steel, structural rebar and plumbing parts.

“This might be a harbinger of what we may see next year,” Simonson said. “I’m telling contractors to brace for possibly four to six percent increases of material costs overall. That hasn’t been the case lately and I’m hoping the good fortune will last, but I think it’s prudent to a resumption of cost increases,” he added.

There’s been a huge interest in datacenters partly driven by interest in artificial intelligence, Simonson said. There’s also a drive for large manufacturing plants for products such as semiconductors, electric vehicles and batteries. Companies may also be looking to re-shore away from conflict zones, supply chain snags or are following the carrot-and-stick of federal funding, he added.

Construction of single-family homes also carried momentum for the new year, as Sage data showed an uptick of nearly 1,000 single-family home permits in 2023. However, multi-family permits across the U.S. lagged compared to previous years at just above 400 permits.

Economists at odds on possibility of recession

Economists seemed cautiously optimistic about construction in 2024 but were at odds on the direction of the general economy. At the end of his presentation, Basu remarked the economy would get worse before they got better and listed the previous Federal interest rate as a driver.

“Basing to an extent on poll results, you don’t need to be from Baltimore to be pessimistic,” Basu said, insisting on his belief a brief recession was on the horizon.

Simonson noted more consumers had more purchasing power, based on employment and real wages rising month over month. Wealth increases for homeowners and stockholders were also evidence for Simonson’s hypothesis for a stronger economy.

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Nonresidential construction spending has fallen for the first time in nearly a year.

National nonresidential construction spending fell 0.2 percent in May to a total of $1.06 trillion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data published on Monday.

An Associated Builders and Contractors’ analysis of the numbers showed spending fell monthly in nine of 16 nonresidential subcategories. Private nonresidential spending fell 0.3% and public nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in May, ABC officials said.

May’s spending decline ended an 11-month streak of monthly increases, Anirban Basu, chief economist for ABC, said in a statement.

“While spending is up more than 17% over that span, manufacturing-related construction has accounted for the majority of that increase. Excluding the manufacturing segment, nonresidential construction spending is barely outpacing inflation, up just 6% over the past year,” Basu added.

An ABC analysis said contractors were “relatively upbeat” and manufacturing projects and public finance justified the confidence, Basu said, noting however interest rates are high and are likely to rise once again during the rest of the year.

“Contractors remain relatively upbeat, according to ABC’s Construction Confidence Index, and ongoing strength in manufacturing and publicly financed segments justifies that confidence. Unfortunately, conditions may prove challenging in other segments over the next few quarters. Interest rates remain elevated and are likely to rise at least once more over the second half of 2023, exacerbating already tight credit conditions and ultimately limiting construction activity,” Basu added.

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By Ethan Duran
The Daily Reporter

Fuel, lumber, steel and trucking costs were on the decline while materials like copper, aluminum and concrete rose last month in the latest Associated General Contractors of America analysis. Experts within the association said some construction input costs dropped in December in a look at the latest Bureau of Labor Statistic data.

The producer price index for material and service inputs to new nonresidential construction fell by 1.8 percent for the sixth time in seven months, and the PPI for goods sank 2.7 percent — a drop like this last seen in November 2008, association officials said. However, materials and services were up 7.2 percent year-over-year and slightly outpaced a 6.5 percent increase in the consumer price index, which is the crystal ball of inflation.

Construction input costs were 7.9 percent higher than they were a year ago and nonresidential construction input prices were 7.6 percent higher, an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis showed. ABC‘s top economist Anirban Basu said the recent short-term price drops had both good and bad effects on the construction economy.

“This Producer Price Index data represents another positive development on the inflation front,” Basu said during a recent webinar. “However, this is both good and bad news. Recent consumer and producer price releases indicate that inflation is fading, though it remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Should inflation continue to abate, the Federal Reserve may be able to stop increasing interest rates sooner than anticipated. Interest rate-sensitive segments like real estate and construction would be among the primary beneficiaries. Contractors are currently maintaining their longest backlog since 2019, according to ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator.”

Falling prices may also indicate a shaky economy in the U.S. and other parts of the world, Basu said. “Moreover, there could be bad news on inflation in the months ahead. War continues in Eastern Europe and the commodity use-intensive Chinese economy is in the process of reopening. Though there is evidence of improving supply chain functioning and moderation in input prices, contractors should not be tempted into complacency,” he added.

The PPI for new nonresidential building construction, the measure of the price contractors would bid to build a fixed set of buildings, was flat for the month and up 19.4 percent year-over-year, the AGC said.

New residential construction PPI inputs fell 1.2 percent for the month but increased 6.9 percent year-over-year, followed by one-month declines for four product groups:

• Diesel fuel was down nearly 30 percent, but up 20 percent year-over-year;
• lumber and plywood were down 3.7 percent for the month and down 20 percent year-over-year;
• steel mill products were down 2.7 percent and down 29 percent, respectively; and
• truck freight transportation was down 1.7 percent and 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Meanwhile, copper and brass mill shapes had a PPI increase of 1.5 percent in November, but prices were down 3.6 percent year-over-year, AGC’s analysis showed. Ready-mixed concrete was up 1.4 percent for the month and 13.6 percent year-over-year and aluminum mill shapes were up 1.3 percent for the month and 5.7 percent year-over-year.

AGC found some concrete steel producers posted price increases in December for hot-rolled coil, and commercial retail tile producers announced price increases up to 8 percent in February.

U.S. hotel construction saw a slight increase in the last few weeks but plans for future rooms fell 16 percent, according to STR data analytics. Places like New York City, which has the most rooms under way, and Nashville were showing signs of a slowdown.

Single-family housing starts fell 1.4 percent in December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate from November and 22 percent year-over-year, the Census Bureau reported. Multifamily starts fell nearly 20 percent, with more permits out for the month but less compared to other years, leading analysts to suggest construction will decline when current projects are done. There were 926,000 multifamily units underway in December across the U.S.

The Federal Reserve projected a flat course for economic activity from mid-November to Jan. 9, according to its latest Beige Book report. “Housing markets continue to weaken, with sales and construction declining across Districts,” the central bank said. “Commercial real estate activity slowed slightly, on average, with more notable weakening in the office market. (Some) bankers said higher borrowing costs had begun to dampen commercial lending.”

Meanwhile, union membership in the industry dipped by 0.5 percent or 5,000, from an annual average of 1,024,000 in 2021 to 1,019,000 in 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. There were 8,671,000 people employed in the construction industry last year, which is a 6.3 percent increase from 2021, but unionization rates still declined between years. The total of workers represented by unions was 1,076,000 (or 12.4 percent) in 2022, compared to 1,112,000 (or 13.6 percent) in 2021.

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By GEOFF MULVIHILL and ANREW DeMILLO
Associated Press

The Associated Builders and Contractors is among various groups appealing a federal judge’s decision late last week to reinstate a nationwide COVID-19 vaccine mandate for employers with 100 or more employees.

In a statement issued on Tuesday, the mostly nonunion ABC said it is now hoping to take its fight over the federal mandate to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Ben Brubeck, ABC vice president of regulatory, labor and state affairs, argue the vaccination requirement “creates excessive compliance costs and regulatory burdens for job creators and threatens the national economy at a time when it is already contending with rising materials prices, supply chain disruptions and workforce shortages.”

The ABC has already seen success questioning the legal underpinning of the Biden Administration’s vaccine mandates. Earlier this month, a federal district judge stayed a separate vaccine mandate applying to employees federal contractors.

As for the requirement applying to employers with 100 or more employees, a federal appeals court panel decided on Friday to reverse a stay previously placed on the requirement, which could affect about 84 million U.S workers.

The mandate from the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration was to take effect Jan. 4.

With Friday’s ruling, it remained unclear when the requirement might now be in place. But the White House said in a statement that it will protect workers: “Especially as the U.S. faces the highly transmissible Omicron variant, it’s critical we move forward with vaccination requirements and protections for workers with the urgency needed in this moment.”

Republican state attorneys general and conservative groups said they would appeal Friday’s decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Twenty-seven Republican-led states joined the conservative groups, business associations and some individual businesses as soon as OSHA published the rules in early November to push back against the requirement. They argued the agency was not authorized to issue the emergency rule, in part because the coronavirus is a general health risk and not one facing only employees at work.

The panel’s majority disagreed.

“Given OSHA’s clear and exercised authority to regulate viruses, OSHA necessarily has the authority to regulate infectious diseases that are not unique to the workplace,” Judge Julia Smith Gibbons, who was nominated to the court by former President George W. Bush, a Republican, wrote in her majority opinion.

“Vaccination and medical examinations are both tools that OSHA historically employed to contain illness in the workplace,” she wrote.

Gibbons noted that the agency’s authority extends beyond just regulating “hard hats and safety goggles.” She said the vaccine requirement “is not a novel expansion of OSHA’s power; it is an existing application of authority to a novel and dangerous worldwide pandemic.”

She was joined in the majority decision by Judge Jane Branstetter Stranch, an appointee of former President Barrack Obama, a Democrat.

The case was consolidated in the 6th circuit, which is dominated by Republican-appointed judges. Earlier this week, the circuit’s active judges rejected an attempt to have the entire panel consider the case, on an 8-8 vote.

The dissent in Friday’s ruling came from Judge Joan Larsen, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, who said Congress did not authorize OSHA to make this sort of rule and that it did not qualify as a necessity to use the emergency procedures the agency followed to put it in place.

Larsen also argued that vaccinated workers “do not face ‘grave danger’ from working with those who are not vaccinated.”

Arkansas Attorney General Leslie Rutledge, a Republican, said she would ask the U.S. Supreme Court to block the order. At least two conservative advocacy groups said they had already appealed to the nation’s highest court.

“The Sixth Circuit’s decision is extremely disappointing for Arkansans because it will force them to get the shot or lose their jobs,” Rutledge said.

South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson, who also is chairman of the Republican Attorneys General Association, said in a Twitter message Friday that he was confident the mandate could be stopped.

The vaccine requirement would apply to companies with 100 or more employees and would cover about 84 million workers in the U.S. Employees who are not fully vaccinated would have to wear face masks and be subject to weekly COVID-19 tests. There would be exceptions, including for those who work outdoors or only at home.

The administration has estimated that the rule would save 6,500 lives and prevent 250,000 hospitalizations over six months. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor, which includes OSHA, said the 6th circuit’s ruling will allow the agency to implement “common-sense, science-based measures to keep workers safe and healthy during a deadly pandemic.”

The vaccine rule for private employers is separate from other vaccine mandates announced by the Biden administration that apply to federal government contractors and workers in health care facilities that receive funding from Medicaid or Medicare. Those rules also are under assault from conservatives and have been paused in at least some parts of the country.

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A group of apprentices gathered at Camp Withycombe in Clackamas last week for battles in craftsmanship. Three participants triumphed in their event and qualified for the national competition next year.

Associated Building and Contractors’ Pacific Northwest chapter on Friday hosted the sixth annual Craft Championships, which included competitions for third- and four-year apprentices in HVAC, sheet metal and sprinkler fitter. The latter was a new addition for 2021.

Wayne Lathrop of American Heating Inc. won the HVAC competition, Aaron Bruce of American Heating Inc. won the sheet metal competition and Cesar Avilez Carbajal of Firestop Company won the sprinkler fitter competition. Each winner earned a $500 cash prize and a trip to San Antonio in March 2022 for the ABC National Craft Championships.

In 2019, local tradespeople took home gold for safety and sheet metal and silver in HVAC at the national event.

“We were so incredibly proud as our competitors competed against the best in the country,” said Laurie Kendall, president and CEO of ABC’s Pacific Northwest chapter.

But the event is more than a competition. It was started in 2015 to show construction in action to high school students as well as the general public. Prior to the pandemic, the Craft Championships drew more than 400 students, Kendall said.

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By Nate Beck
91��Ƶ Newswires

Federal officials are requiring contractors and subcontractors to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Dec. 8 under a mandate President Joe Biden issued in early September.

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration last week issued guidance for contractors after Biden signed an executive order on Sept. 9 requiring all executive branch workers to get the vaccine, including contractors. OSHA‘s memo stipulates that employees of contractors must be fully vaccinated to do business with the federal government, except in “limited cases” where an employee can legally claim an exemption.

OSHA’s guidance requires federal agencies to include a clause in contracts requiring employees of firms competing for work to be vaccinated — a stipulation that could begin to appear in bid solicitations as soon as Oct. 15. The agency is implementing the requirement through its Emergency Temporary Standard, or ETS, process, which allows OSHA to bypass its own lengthy rulemaking process. The rules would apply to firms with more than 100 employees.

Jason Miller, deputy director for management of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a statement last week that the new rules are aimed at getting more people vaccinated. Miller said the requirement would “decrease worker absence, reduce labor costs, and improve the efficiency of contractors and subcontractors performing work for the federal government.”

The Associated Builders and Contractors, a mostly nonunion trade group, said while it encourages contractors and their employees to get vaccinated, the new requirement would exacerbate a skilled workforce shortage in the industry and lead to compliance costs for companies.

In a statement Monday, Ben Brubeck, ABC National’s vice president of regulatory, labor and state affairs, called the new rules the “most far-reaching standard” ever issued by OSHA. The trade group this week sent a letter to OSHA officials asking the agency to seek input and consider questions before issuing its ETS.

“Despite the efforts of a range of stakeholders, vaccine hesitancy remains an ongoing, complicated reality in countless industries,” Brubeck said. “How the ETS is crafted will have significant, lasting impacts by driving workers away from larger firms and disrupting construction projects without raising the vaccination rate.”

According to guidance from OSHA’s Safer Federal Workforce Task Force, contractors will be required to collect documentation showing their workers are vaccinated — whether or not an employee works remotely. The guidance also leaves it up to contractors to determine if an employee’s request for an exemption from the rules is legitimate.

Firms must designate a coordinator to oversee compliance with OSHA’s mandates.

“The contractor is responsible for considering, and dispositioning, such requests for accommodations regardless of the covered contractor employee’s place of performance,” according to the memo.

Contractors may be able to claim a limited, 60-day exemption for showing their workers are fully vaccinated if an agency has an “urgent mission-critical need” for employees to work on a particular project.

OSHA’s guidance also requires federal contractors to follow masking rules in areas with high transmission of COVID-19 — including requiring workers to wear masks indoors and practice social distancing.

Federal officials are expected to publish the clause requiring vaccines by Oct. 8. OSHA’s guidance directs agencies to begin including the clause in bid solicitations beginning Oct. 15, and include the language in contracts issued after that date.

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By Nate Beck
91��Ƶ Newswire

Although construction companies have generally continued working throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, new figures released Thursday show they are not immune to the economic fallout.

The U.S. economy contracted 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020, marking the largest downturn on record. Although most contractors haven’t paused during the coronavirus crisis, statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and analyzed by the Associated Builders and Contractors show the industry suffered along with the rest of the economy.

“Despite construction’s status as an essential industry in most cities and states, the sector did not escape the wrath of COVID-19 during the worst economic quarter on record,” ABC chief economist Anirban Basu said.

Nonresidential fixed investment fell by 27 percent in the second quarter, and residential investment dropped 38.7 percent. In the first quarter of the year, in contrast, fixed investment in nonresidential projects had fallen 6.7 percent and residential investment had increased 19 percent.

The figures show the construction industry had a chaotic second quarter. Many contractors reported interruptions in supply chains as well as project cancellations or delays amid a patchwork of local mandates meant to slow the spread of COVID-19.

With the pandemic far from over, builders are likely to wrestle with even more economic fallout in coming months, Basu said.

“With case counts spiking in parts of the nation, the U.S. economy has yet to begin a rapid economic recovery,” he said. “While May and June represented periods of robust economic bounce back in terms of employment, retail sales, building permits and manufacturing activity, recovery will become more erratic over the next several months.”

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Despite declining investment in nonresidential projects, the U.S. economy as a whole is continuing to grow, according to a recent report from Associated Builders and Contractors.

The economy expanded in the third quarter of 2019 at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent, according to an ABC analysis of economic data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

However, nonresidential fixed investment in structures – a segment tied closely to the construction industry – declined 15.3 percent in the third quarter after declining 11.1 percent in the second quarter.

A slowing economy, according to ABC’s chief economist, Anirban Basu, can be seen most readily in the falling rate of gross private domestic investment, which dropped 1.5 percent during the third quarter. This followed a 6.3 decrease in the second quarter.

Also, some segments of nonresidential construction spending – including office and lodging – are continuing to contract nationally. Others, in the public sector, are showing growth. In the Portland-metro area that is most evident in substantial new construction in the education field.

“The primary question now is whether the slowdown in economic activity will persist into 2020,” Basu stated in a press release. “Many factors suggest it will, including a weakening global economy, a U.S. manufacturing sector that is arguably already in recession, vulnerability attributable to massive accumulations of public, corporate and household debt and the uncertain outcomes attached to ongoing trade negotiations. On the other hand, U.S. equity markets have continued to surge higher in the context of better-than-expected corporate earnings and ongoing accommodation by the Federal Reserve. Put it all together and the outlook for the U.S. economy has seldom been more uncertain, especially given next year’s elections.”

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