Federal investigators have zeroed in on flaws in the pool deck as the preliminary cause of the 2021 collapse of a 12-story Florida beachfront condominium building that killed 98 people.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology stated in a report Wednesday that the Champlain Towers South pool deck began falling at least seven minutes before the tower, suggesting the pool dragged the building down with it.

Glenn Bell, co-lead investigator at NIST, said detailed analysis and computer simulations “indicate that it is more likely that the failure started in a pool deck slab-column connection.”

Most residents were asleep when the building in Surfside, Florida collapsed into a huge pile of rubble at 1:22 a.m. on June 24, 2021. As the investigation continued, a Miami judge approved a settlement exceeding $1 billion for personal injury and wrongful death claims from the disaster.

NIST said its final conclusions on the collapse will be released in spring or summer 2026.

The preliminary findings also showed the “building was in distress in the weeks before the collapse.” Among the indicators of deeper-seated problems were a door that dislodged from its frame, cracks in a wall where heavy planters were located and a gate that shifted and became jammed shut.

The day before the disaster, the NIST report states, water was leaking from a parking garage ceiling that had gained numerous cracks. The flow “dramatically increased in the hours before the collapse.”

NIST previously said the construction flaws that led to the collapse were present from the time the 40-year-old structure was built. The findings of the Champlain Towers investigation will improve building safety, both in new construction and in repairs for older structures, investigative lead Judith Mitrani-Reiser said.

“This tragic event has revealed flaws in our systems, and quality is at the heart of it,” she said.

After the collapse, state legislators in 2022 enacted a law requiring condo associations to have sufficient reserves to cover major repairs. Some residents were caught off guard by hefty fees imposed to cover years of deferred maintenance expenses required to bring their buildings into compliance with the law’s standards. That led to another law providing condo associations and residents more flexibility in handling the costs.

Meanwhile, at the collapse site, a few miles north of Miami, a luxury condo building called the Delmore is being constructed. The site was purchased at auction by Dubai-based DAMAC International for $120 million. Construction is expected to finish by 2029, with a starting price of $15 million each for the new condos.

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More than four years after the partial collapse of a Florida condominium building killed 98 people, federal investigators have yet to make a final determination of the cause — but they do have some leading theories.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology, the agency handling the probe, said this week it hopes to conclude the investigation in 2026.

“We intend for our investigation of this failure to have a lasting impact, save future lives and ensure this never happens again,” NIST investigator Judith Mitrani-Reiser stated in the agency’s latest report.

Most residents were asleep in the 12-story Champlain Towers South when the beachfront condo building in Surfside, Florida collapsed into a huge pile of rubble at 1:22 a.m. on June 24, 2021. As the investigation advanced, a Miami judge approved a settlement exceeding $1 billion for personal injury and wrongful death claims from the disaster.

Meanwhile, a new luxury condominium building is going up at the Champlain Towers site, a few miles north of Miami.

What caused the collapse?

NIST has zeroed in on what it calls three “higher-likelihood” scenarios; all are related to construction flaws that date to the 40-year-old structure’s origin.

“These conditions existed from the time construction was complete, 40 years before the partial collapse,” said Glen Bell, co-lead investigator on NIST’s National Construction Safety Team.

One possibility is the failure of a connection between a building column and the pool deck slab that never met building code standards. Another is that steel reinforcement “was not placed where it should have,” which meant the column and pool deck were far too weak.

And a third theory is that work done later around the pool — when heavy planters, sand and pavers were added — increased the weight load on a deck “that was already functionally and structurally inadequate.”

The NIST report also notes that support columns in the building’s basement parking garage had been exposed to frequent flooding. Such exposure causes corrosion in steel reinforcements and concrete deterioration.

Are there other theories?

Investigators did not find evidence of voids in the ground, known as karst, underneath the building. Using satellite data, the NIST team found there was no sinking or settling underneath Champlain Towers South, which would indicate the existence of karst.

In addition, investigators found the limestone upon which the condo was built was “sufficient to carry the building loads” and that testing of the concrete supporting Champlain Towers South had “adequate material strength.”

One challenge for investigators was the lack of any available records from original construction of the building and not many from its earlier years.

How are new rules being handled?

After the Surfside disaster, state legislators in 2022 enacted a law requiring condo associations to have sufficient reserves to cover major repairs. Some residents were caught off guard by hefty fees imposed to cover years of deferred maintenance expenses required to bring their buildings into compliance with the law’s standards.

Gov. Ron DeSantis this week signed new legislation allowing some condo associations to fund their reserves through a loan or line of credit. It also gives residents more flexibility to pause payments into reserve funds while they prioritize needed repairs. It extends the deadline for condo associations to complete structural integrity studies and exempts owners in some smaller buildings from those studies.

“Now it’s time to make the change,” state Sen. Ed Hooper said. “Elderly people are losing their condos because they could not afford to make the increase in their monthly HOA fees. That’s just wrong.”

What is being built on the site?

It’s a luxury condo building, dubbed the Delmore. Its 37 “mansions in the sky” each have a starting price of $15 million. The site was purchased at auction by Dubai-based DAMAC International for $120 million.

According to the company, there will be amenities such as a see-through swimming pool, an indoor pool, an outdoor kitchen, a fitness center and a meditation garden.

The new building is expected to be completed by 2029.

Will a memorial be created?

A design for a memorial to the 98 victims and that honors their families was approved earlier this year by Surfside officials and a family committee. But the city’s planning and zoning board objected to its appearance and recommended that alternatives be considered.

The existing proposal envisions a tall “wall of water” and exhibition of materials from the collapsed building. Surfside officials say they want to keep the project on track but will consider additional input, especially from the family committee.

“I understand the urgency,” planning board chair Lindsay Lecour said at an April city commission meeting. “But this memorial is going to be here long beyond anyone in this room.”

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