The cost of building things in the U.S. is still trending upward, and at a rate greater than overall inflation, Skanska executives said in a recent webinar.

Interest rates, tariffs and now diesel costs spiking amid the war with Iran can be expected to raise costs, the executives said in their 2026 briefing on Thursday.

“We think cost escalation in construction is going to outpace U.S. inflation, and fairly significantly,” said Steve Stouthamer, Skanska’s executive vice president for project planning.

Skanska’s composite cost index in the past year has risen 6.8 percent, which Stouthamer called “very significant.” Most markets will see inflation between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, he said.

Spiraling prices for diesel and regular fuel can be expected to reverberate through the construction industry, the executives said. On Monday, diesel averaged $4.91 per gallon in Oregon, up 66 cents in the past week, according to AAA.

Tariffs continue to boost costs, despite a U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down some of the Trump administration’s levies on trade.

“It’s just the reciprocal tariffs that have been struck down — all of these other ones remain,” said Rob Cantando, Skanska’s director of strategic supply chain.

The duty paid on aluminum has risen 3.5 times since early 2025 when President Donald Trump first instituted a series of tariffs.

“This really shows how aluminum pricing has escalated in the U.S. above the rest of the world,” Cantando said, adding that it’s sending prices upward for curtain wall and storefront extrusions.

Copper and other building materials also remain elevated.

It’s not all bad news on costs, however. Manufacturers are beginning to catch up on demand for some building systems, including heating and cooling units.

“We are expecting lead times for HVAC equipment and electrical gear to fall this year, and that’s really due to expansions — (manufacturers) continuing to ramp up,” Cantando said. “There have been significant investments by many manufacturers in this area.”

Costs for plumbing fixtures, HVAC and electrical gear should begin to moderate due to the elimination of some tariffs, he said.

Activity in the construction industry is being propped up by massive tech projects — data centers and other tech-related megaprojects, driven by demand for artificial intelligence, data and cloud restructure.

Data center developers are expected to build 8 gigawatts of infrastructure this year, totaling 32 million square feet. In monetary terms, that’s a spend of an estimated $40 billion to $80 billion.

An estimated 50,000 to 75,000 electricians are working exclusively on data center construction, Skanska officials said.

“A few years ago, we had a number of regions in the country that could probably hide from what the data center impact was doing, but now that demand is spreading across the country to locations where there is power capacity (and) land availability,” Stouthamer said. “Most markets around the country are feeling the impacts of the significant growth in the data-center market.”

In contrast, traditional residential and commercial construction remain soft, the Sweden-based global construction giant reported last month.

“Interest rates have led to reduction in commercial work,” Stouthamer said.

Recovery in housing and other private sectors is likely to be gradual, hinging on further interest rate reductions, improved consumer demand and reduced input costs, Skanska stated in its winter 2026 report.

“More optimal conditions may not materialize fully until 2027, but even that is highly speculative,” the report stated.

Skanska officials recommended contractors forecast budgets to the midpoint of construction, not just the procurement stage. Other cost-conscious measures they recommended include having flexibility in project specifications, early planning with project partners and producing more frequent budget updates.

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