Politicians, economists, housing advocates and developers have come to a broad agreement that more housing is needed in Oregon. A new report from ECONorthwest attempts to measure the scope of the problem.

The state underbuilt by 155,000 housing units from 2000 to 2015, according to the report. If that number of homes were built in Oregon during the next 20 years, home prices would be 5.5 percent lower than if the homes were not built, the report found.

“Oregon is seriously behind … providing housing at all levels of affordability,” Mayor Ted Wheeler said at an event Tuesday to mark the report’s release. “This report shows we have a lot of work to do.”

Wheeler called the report “very depressing” in its depiction of the housing deficit.

The report recommends employing some of the strategies the city of Portland already is, including promotion of so-called “middle” housing such as duplexes and accessory dwelling units (ADUs).

Other recommendations include:

• changing impact fees to be based on a per-acre or per-square-foot basis, instead of per unit (this would improve the feasibility of high-density projects, the report stated);
• holding cities accountable to meeting existing permitting timelines and clear and objective development approval standards; and
• allowing high-density zoning near high-capacity transit station areas.

“We need a Marshall Plan for housing,” said Mike Kingsella, an author of the report and executive director of Oregon LOCUS, a trade group for developers.

Local governments would garner a $13 billion net benefit if the 155,000 units were built, based on projections of property taxes, system development charges and other revenue sources, said Michael Wilkerson, an economist and partner at ECONorthwest.

Joe Cortright, director of CityLab, questioned the underlying assumption that more housing of any type is needed. Too many large, suburban homes are sitting with empty bedrooms, he said.

“I don’t think we face a shortage of housing so much as a shortage of cities and great urban neighborhoods,” he said. “Big, single-family houses in the suburbs are not meeting the housing needs of people who are more interested in living in urban neighborhoods.”

The report’s release came three weeks before the Nov. 6 election, when Portland-area voters will decide the fate of Metro’s $653 million housing bond measure. Also, Measure 102, a statewide bid, would allow affordable housing projects to mix private and public funding.

Both measures would help address the dire need for affordable housing, advocates said.

“I really, truly, deeply believe that we can solve this problem together,” said Alison McIntosh, deputy director at Neighborhood Partnerships, a Portland-based nonprofit.

The report is part of Up for Growth Oregon, a pro-housing group that includes developers such as BRIDGE Housing, Cairn Pacific, Holland Partner Group and nonprofits such as 1,000 Friends of Oregon and Oregon Smart Growth.

The group demonstrates developers and housing advocates such as McIntosh can find common ground, said Noel Johnson, principal at Cairn Pacific.

“At the end of the day, her goals are my goals,” he said. “The question is how to achieve it.”

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The Oregon Legislature‘s 2018 session could bring some additional funding for affordable housing, but lawmakers are unlikely to tackle other housing issues, advocates said.

Political watchers are anxiously waiting to see what Oregon’s February legislative session has in store for housing regulations. This year’s session is a short one, beginning Feb. 5 and ending March 9, and some observers expect lawmakers will be hard-pressed to wade into controversial housing bills with budget questions looming large.

Affordable housing advocates will seek more state funding.

The Oregon Housing Alliance is backing a bill that is expected to be introduced by the House Human Services and Housing Committee. The bill would increase a document-recording fee paid by homebuyers to $75, up from $20. That would raise an estimated $105 million per biennium, up from about $28 million currently, said Alison McIntosh, spokeswoman for Neighborhood Partnerships, a Portland-based nonprofit group.

The bulk of the increased revenue – 76 percent – would go to build and preserve affordable housing. Another 14 percent would go to homeownership education and counseling, and 10 percent would go to fund emergency rent assistance. In each of those three programs, 25 percent of the revenue must be used to serve veterans, McIntosh said.

The document-recording fee is the only reliable state source of affordable housing funding, McIntosh said. Local governments otherwise rely on bonding or general funds.

“We really need to act to build affordable homes and keep people in their homes,” she said.

Other housing issues under discussion include broadening the state Housing and Community Services agency’s ability to issue bonds – which would require a constitutional change to be referred to voters – establishing a first-time homebuyer’s savings account program and requiring rent-burdened communities to study affordable housing.

There’s a chance legislators may be tempted to make another run at undoing the state’s prohibition on rent control. Another possibility is a bill to limit no-cause evictions, or to take Portland’s fee-based approach to discourage evictions statewide.

But major changes appear unlikely this session, said John DiLorenzo, a lobbyist aligned with landlords’ groups.

“The math hasn’t changed,” he said. “The yes votes are pretty cemented and the no votes are pretty cemented. So I don’t see a lot of change in that regard.”

McIntosh acknowledged the impasse.

“We don’t have the votes in the Senate,” she said.

Tenants’ advocates and landlords’ groups will be watching a May primary election closely. Sen. Rod Monroe, a Democrat who represents an East Portland district, attracted the ire of tenants’ groups after he helped defeat their bills in the 2017 session. Monroe, who has served in the Legislature since 1977, owns an apartment complex.

He has attracted primary opponents Shemia Fagan, a Happy Valley civil rights attorney, and Kayse Jama, executive director of Unite Oregon.

DiLorenzo said he appreciates Monroe’s lengthy record on issues such as K-12 education. “Looking at the totality of Sen. Monroe’s record, they would be very foolish to replace him in that district,” he said.

DiLorenzo said reducing the cost of Portland’s inclusionary housing policy and development fees would result in more new housing than public projects would create.

“If a lot of that regulatory burden would give way, I personally believe the private sector could step up and build significantly more housing than the public sector could do with their housing bond,” he said.

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A bill that would limit landlords’ ability to evict tenants without cause was passed by the Oregon House of Representatives on Tuesday.

The bill backed by Democrats passed by a 31 to 27 vote. It now goes to the Senate for consideration.

House Bill 2004 is part of a movement in Oregon to give renters greater certainty that they won’t face eviction or sudden, dramatic increases in rent. Landlords have fought the changes, saying they’re unnecessary and will cause problems in the market.

State Rep. Karin Power, D-Milwaukie, said she repeatedly heard from renters about their fears and anxieties when campaigning door-to-door.

“If it’s a place that you’ve made your home … the fact that that is so tenuous under our current landlord-tenant law is why I came on in support of this bill,” she said. “People need a little bit more assurance when they’re budgeting for rent at their current apartment that that’s not going to suddenly change.”

The law would require 90 days’ notice for no-cause evictions, as long as tenants have been in place for six months. It also lifts the state’s pre-emption banning local rent control.

The state bill comes about two months after the Portland City Council passed a renter-friendly emergency ordinance. The rules, pushed by Commissioner Chloe Eudaly, require landlords to pay their tenants’ relocation costs when issuing a no-cause eviction. The relocation fees range from $2,900 to $4,500 depending on the size of apartment being vacated.

The local ordinance also requires landlords to give 90 days’ notice for a rent increase of 5 percent or more, and pay relocation costs if renters are forced to move by a rent increase of 10 percent or more.

That has raised the ire of multifamily owners and brokers, who until this year had no restrictions on setting whatever rent the market will bear. (The local ordinance faces an ongoing lawsuit in Multnomah County Circuit Court).

Gary Winkler, a multifamily investment broker in Portland, said rent control hurts landlords who have kept their rents low.

“There are a number of people out there who have been reasonable with the rents, and they’re getting punished the most,” he said.

One local landlord has units renting for $500, Winkler said. Now, under Portland’s new rules, he effectively can’t raise the rent more than 9.9 percent annually, making the property less attractive to investors.

“If they want to sell, they can’t sell as easily, because it’s going to take them years to get (rents) up to where they should be,” Winkler said.

Under the state bill, landlords would still be able to issue no-cause evictions during the first six months of a renter’s tenancy. Thereafter, landlords would be required to use the for-cause eviction process. Landlord advocates have said it’s difficult to prove cause to evict tenants.

The legislation includes some exceptions that would allow property owners to evict tenants: if the landlord wants to move in or move a family member in, if the landlord wants to sell the property for use as a primary residence, if the property has become uninhabitable and must be renovated, or if the property is removed from residential use. In those instances, the landlord would be required to give 90 days’ notice and pay relocation assistance equivalent to one month’s rent.

Tenant advocates said the bill provides tenants some protection against sudden dislocation. Evicted residents often end up couch-surfing, living out of their cars or experiencing homelessness, said Alison McIntosh, deputy director for policy and communications at Neighborhood Partnerships, a Portland-based nonprofit.

“Right now, tenants have very little protection against no-cause evictions,” she said. “The House said we clearly need to act.”

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