Commercial and multifamily loan originations soared in late 2025 as once-frozen credit markets resumed flowing freely, a lender said at an industry event in Portland on Thursday.

Multifamily loan originations grew 25 percent in the third quarter of 2025, while office loans nearly tripled as values reset and investors pounced, said Matt Dzbanek, a lender with Ariel Property Advisors.

Nationally, $936 billion in commercial real estate loans will mature this year, adding significant flexibility, according to Dzbanek. He predicted debt will sluice through real estate this year.

“There’s going to be a lot of liquidity in the market,” he said.

Dzbanek delivered his comments during HFO Investment Real Estate‘s annual multifamily market forecast at AVENUE on Northeast Grand Avenue. The brokerage’s 21st annual event Thursday brought together investors and others to hear from industry analysts.

Locally, the picture is mixed, analysts said. Multifamily vacancies rose to 5.47 percent in 2025, up from 4.49 percent a year earlier. But rents grew modestly in Portland’s metropolitan statistical area, from $2.04 per square foot on average in 2024 to $2.11 last year.

Rent growth will remain muted in the near term as older assets face greater price pressure, said Greg Frick, an HFO partner and the event’s moderator.

“Vintage matters more than ever,” he said.

New multifamily supply will remain sparse, with only 2,319 units permitted in 2025 through August in buildings of five units or more, according to census data.

Efforts to boost supply, including Portland’s waiver of system development charges, have yet to bear fruit.

“For market-rate (housing), the pipeline is very, very dry,” Frick said. “We do still see new deliveries being constrained.”

Frick predicted positive in-migration will continue in the Portland area this year after the population declined post-pandemic. Job growth has stabilized, he said.

Economist John W. Mitchell cited national statistics showing a “pretty dramatic slowing” in the labor market, with job openings falling. But neither are employers rapidly shedding jobs, he said.

“We’re in a no-hire, no-fire economy,” Mitchell said.

The U.S. economy grew at a 4.3 percent rate in the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by strong consumer spending. Years of rising stock prices have contributed to a “K-shaped” economy, where high-income consumers continue to spend, while lower-income consumers stagnate, Mitchell said.

Oregon continues to lag much of the nation. Job growth ranked 30th in the nation in the third quarter, while the state’s 5.2 percent unemployment rate was 47th.

One piece of good news for landlords: With high housing prices in many cities, it makes sense for many residents to rent, Mitchell said, citing a recent article in The Economist.

“For most people, it pays to rent,” Mitchell said. “That bodes well for your business.”

Melissa Wall, a certified public accountant for Aprio in Portland, discussed various real estate tax strategies for avoiding gains taxation. The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act established permanent opportunity zones.

The investment zones — first rolled out in 2017 — allow real estate investors to avoid gains taxation if a qualified investment is held for 10 years, and provide certain lesser tax benefits if an investment is held for five or seven years.

Much of central Portland, including downtown, was designated an opportunity zone, providing an investment incentive as the area struggles with one of the highest office vacancy rates in the nation.

1031 exchanges, which allow real estate investors to roll the proceeds from a property sale into buying another piece of real estate, remain popular, Wall said. She urged investors to speak with a CPA.

“Complexity is increasing,” she said.

The post Commercial lending surges as credit markets thaw appeared first on Daily Journal of Commerce.