Metro’s $5 billion transportation measure has emerged as perhaps the hardest-fought local ballot issue, and one that has split real estate and construction interests.

The measure would approve funding for a series of infrastructure projects, most notably construction of a light-rail line from downtown Portland to Bridgeport Village in Tigard. It would be paid for by a payroll tax on employers with more than 25 workers, something that has led to fierce opposition from big business, including Nike and Intel.

The ballot issue, Measure 26-218, has attracted some sharp critics, ranging from a well-known local economist to the well-heeled Portland Business Alliance. It has also caused splits in the business community and among companies involved in real estate and construction.

In favor: construction companies such as Stacy and Whitbeck and Colas Construction, which have extensive experience with major public contracts, along with major unions including the Local 48 Electricians PAC.

Opposed: Commercial real estate brokers and investors including Melvin Mark Brokerage Co. and Harsch Investment Properties.

It’s not a mystery why commercial real estate and construction interests are on opposite sides of Metro’s transportation plan, Portland pollster John Horvick said.

“Clearly, the union and construction guys have an interest in big construction projects, and the commercial real estate guys are worried about payroll taxes,” said Horvick, political director for DHM Research.

The measure appears to be on track to be closely decided. A poll conducted by DHM Research and commissioned by OPB found the measure leading in a close contest, with 47 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters in the Portland metro area from Oct. 7 to 11.

“The measure’s close,” Horvick said. “If it narrowly passes, that wouldn’t surprise me. If it failed by 12 points, that wouldn’t surprise me.”

Tax measures tend to tighten as an election nears, Horvick said. “It’s just a lot easier to get people to no than it is to yes.”

At stake is years’ worth of construction jobs. The Southwest Corridor light rail project alone is expected to cost $1.8 billion, with $975 million coming from the bond measure and the rest from federal and other leveraged funds. The project would also require rebuilding the Vermont and Newbury trestle bridges on Barbur Boulevard.

The Metro measure would also fund improvements to deteriorating state highways such as Tualatin Valley Highway and 82^nd Avenue, electrifying Trimet’s bus fleet and paying for students to take city buses.

Metro spent years putting together a group of projects from around the region that would attract political support. Still, the measure was only barely ahead in Multnomah County, with 55 percent support, and well behind in Washington County, where many of the projects are concentrated.

“That’s a real warning sign — that in the most tax-friendly jurisdiction it’s barely over 50 percent,” Horvick said of the Multnomah County survey results. “In Washington County, where most of the money would be spent, it’s underwater.”

In Washington County, 43 percent were in favor and 45 percent were opposed.

Commercial real estate firms have joined other business groups in opposing the measure:

• Harsch Investment Properties donated $25,000 to the Stop the Metro Wage Tax PAC on Sept. 17, public records show. Jordan Schnitzer’s company manages 3.5 million square feet of office and industrial property in the Portland area. A message left for a Harsch spokeswoman was not returned.
• Melvin Mark Brokerage Co., which owns or manages 3 million square feet of office space in metro Portland, donated $10,000 to the Stop the Metro Wage Tax PAC on Sept. 21. Melvin Mark also did not respond to a request for comment.
• Developer Vanessa Sturgeon donated $1,000 to the political-action committee on Oct. 14. “A tax on wages during an economic crisis is a really bad idea,” Sturgeon said in an email.
• Law firms Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt and Davis Wright Tremaine each donated $10,000 to the Stop the Metro Wage Tax.

The political action committee has sent cheeky mailers with the message “Packy Never Forget,” referring to an elephant that died at the Metro-owned Portland Zoo in 2017.

Construction and labor have been the strongest backers of the pro-Metro side. Among the campaign’s biggest boosters:

• Stacy and Whitbeck Inc. gave $150,000 to the Get Moving PAC in August. The company, based in Alameda, California, has built previous light-rail lines in Portland, including the MAX Orange line. A company spokeswoman did not respond to a message seeking comment.
• Local 48 Electricians PAC donated $100,000 to the get moving PAC on Aug. 24.
• HNTB Corp., a Kansas City, Missouri, engineering firm with a Portland office, donated $65,000 to the committee on Oct. 19.
• Hamilton Construction Co., a contractor based in Springfield that focuses on public infrastructure projects, donated $10,000 to the PAC on Oct. 13.
• Colas Construction Inc. donated $2,500 to another pro-ballot measure group, the Infrastructure Jobs are Good Jobs PAC, on Sept. 14.

The Associated General Contractors of Oregon-Columbia chapter has stayed out of the fray, taking no official position on Measure 26-218.

While the Metro measure directly stands to affect billions of dollars in projects, industry officials are also watching other races, including Portland’s mayoral election, which has a community activist, Sarah Iannarone, challenging Mayor Ted Wheeler.

AGC Oregon-Columbia Executive Director Mike Salsgiver said he’d like to see more balance in the state Legislature, which is dominated by Democrats.

“Supermajorities in either direction don’t tend to serve the public very well,” he said.

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