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Five Clackamas County planning commissioners earlier this week unanimously recommended that the county commission reject a 2,290-acre urban reserve proposal being pitched by the city of Molalla.

If the area were designated as an urban reserve, it would become the next one incorporated into the urban growth boundary. But planning commissioners said the proposal relied on population projections that were too high. Their decision jeopardizes the city’s growth plan, which was developed at a cost of $250,000 over five years.

According to Dan Chandler, counsel for the county, the city projected 2.3 percent population increases for the next 50 years. The city used that percentage to back its urban reserve proposal, which would designate the rural acreage 鈥� mostly exclusive farmland and exception land 鈥� as the first priority for urban expansion.

鈥淟ong-term population forecasting is inherently uncertain, especially in smaller towns,鈥� Chandler said. 鈥淔or the most part, every major population shift is dictated by only a few events, and those events are pretty much impossible to predict.鈥�

But as Molalla City Manager John Atkins pointed out, there isn’t a point in the previous 50 years when the city’s the population didn’t increase by at least 2.3 percent. Consultants hired by the city estimated that Molalla’s population would be 24,289 by 2060. The city presently has 8,100 residents.

The urban reserve proposal and the planning commission’s recommendation will go before Clackamas County commissioners this month if Molalla officials decide to go forward with the proposal. It would have to be approved by a majority of county commissioners and then be approved by the state Land Conservation and Development Commission in order to be finalized.

While Atkins admitted that projecting population isn’t an exact science, he said city officials are most frustrated with the process required to gain an OK.

鈥淭he final approval of this proposal would have to come from LCDC, so I don’t understand why the plan shouldn’t just be presented to them,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e feel comfortable with our proposal, and it just seems that a lot of our work is being short-circuited by having to go through this process.鈥�

City officials haven’t decided on their next step, but Atkins guessed that they will go forward with the county commission hearing and see if they can get it pushed to the state level.

Chandler said the city of Molalla has several options. Officials could move forward with the proposal as it is, revise its population projections, retool the urban reserve map or scrap the project altogether. The city also could contend for an urban growth boundary expansion, which Chandler said could probably gain approval more easily than the urban reserve could.

The county commission is scheduled to discuss the proposal during its April 27 meeting.