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A 鈥渏umping off point鈥� was established for discussions about how much land for housing should be included in an urban growth boundary expansion, if Metro Council were to green-light one.

During a work session last week, Metro Council determined that if it chose to expand the UGB, the incoming land would need to be able to accommodate the addition of 15,000 homes or living units. Meanwhile, land-use activists oppose any UGB expansion at this time.

鈥淥ur view is not now,鈥� said Mary Kyle McCurdy, attorney for land-use advocacy group 1000 Friends of Oregon. 鈥淚t’s not a 鈥榥o’ forever, but with uncertainty around population growth and the economy, which these numbers are based on, we think it’s best to pause and wait.鈥�

Metro Council won’t vote whether to expand the UGB for the Portland-metro area 鈥� Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties 鈥� until Oct. 20; however, councilors needed a number that it could use as a base for discussions.

鈥淐onsider it a placeholder figure to put into the draft ordinance,鈥� Metro spokesman Ken Ray said. 鈥淚t’s like a bill that gets introduced to the Legislature. It’s a jumping off point.鈥�

But 15,000 is not an arbitrary figure; Metro staffers came up with it by using data from both population and employment projections. Last year, staffers released a report showing that depending on growth, the metro area could have from a surplus of 2,900 housing units to a shortage of 79,300 units at the end of the 20-year period.

In a compromise of sorts, Metro narrowed this range to the middle third 鈥� between 15,400 and 26,600 housing units. And because undeveloped areas and possible infill spaces exist within the existing UGB, the council decided to start the discussion at the bottom of the middle third.

鈥淭hey could go up from that number or they could go down,鈥� Ray said. 鈥淭hey could decide not to expand it at all.鈥�

Metro councilors received recommendations for seven areas 鈥� totaling 3,457 acres 鈥� that could accommodate housing needs for a UGB expansion. But because density varies in metro areas, it is unclear how many acres would be needed for 15,000 housing units.

For example, the 1,063 acres recommended south of Hillsboro could provide between 12,756 and 15,945 units, depending on density. Hillsboro has proposed that the area have 12 units per acre, while Metro has expressed its desire for approximately 15 units per acre, Ray said.

The city of Beaverton, on the other hand, would seek extremely high density for the 543 acres recommended south of Cooper Mountain.

鈥淣ot all expansion areas are created equal,鈥� Ray said. 鈥淎nd if we did include an area in an expansion, the council could put a stipulation on what sort of density standard the area must have.鈥�

Meanwhile, 1000 Friends of Oregon is taking a hard stance against any expansion.

鈥淭he U.S. Census data already shows that we are growing at a slower rate than Metro predicted,鈥� McCurdy said. 鈥淎dd that to the recessionary effects that we are feeling and will be feeling moving forward, (and) it’s not an appropriate time.鈥�

McCurdy added that a multibillion-dollar backlog of proposed infrastructure projects for the metro area should be considered before a UGB expansion.

If Metro Council were to decline to expand the UGB, then the discussion would not resume until 2015.

But according to David Nielsen, CEO of the Home Builders Association of Metropolitan Portland, the area could experience a shortage of developable lots before that time.

鈥淵ou need to look at these things in the long term,鈥� Nielsen said. 鈥淚t takes five years, minimum, to get new land developable, and that is if everything goes just right. Just because the population and employment data is off right now doesn’t mean it will continue to be. You can’t play with those types of projections.鈥�