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In one of Aesop’s fables, a wise ant once said to a grasshopper, 鈥淚t is thrifty to prepare today for the wants of tomorrow.鈥�

That could very well be the moral of the story for a report issued last week to the governor and the state Legislature, by the State Debt Policy Advisory Commission 鈥� a team led by Oregon State Treasurer Ted Wheeler tasked with assessing Oregon’s financial health and debt capacity.

Citing revenue shortfalls, the commission recommended that 鈥渘o net increase in general fund-backed debt be authorized鈥� for the remainder of the biennium. That could spell trouble for groups seeking state-funded capital financing.

鈥淩ight now, it doesn’t really matter what the project is,鈥� said Sen. Richard Devlin, D-Tualatin, a member of the debt policy committee. 鈥淚 think what the debt policy committee is saying is: 鈥楧o not issue any additional debt in either (general obligation) bonds or lottery bonds unless you absolutely have to.’ 鈥�

In part because of a weakening global economic climate, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis reported in December that general fund revenues for the 2011-2013 biennium are expected to decrease $277 million from 2011 projections to $13.7 billion.

Because of $167 million in new general fund debt 鈥� authorized by the Legislature in the 2011 session 鈥� the advisory commission reported that the state will slightly exceed its historical target of general fund-backed debt through the remainder of the biennium.

The state attempts to keep debt service as a percentage of general fund revenue to a maximum of 5 percent in order to maintain its favorable credit ratings. At the end of the current biennium, that ratio will be 5.02 percent.

The state’s lending capacity is expected to return by the 2013-2015 biennium, with the ability to lend $640 million in general fund-backed obligations per year, as well as $619 million in lottery bonds over the course of the next two bienniums 鈥� assuming no additional spending takes place in 2012.

The recommended hold on spending, however, is not likely to affect requests for direct revenue bonds, which are typically paid for by a dedicated revenue stream associated with a project, such as rent or tuition.

Di Saunders, spokeswoman for the Oregon University System, said it plans to seek at least $120 million in Article XI-F bonds for five university construction projects. Those include: Oregon State University’s $43.6 million Student Experience Center, a $30 million residence hall at OSU, a $9.58 million renovation of the east wing of OSU’s Memorial Union and the $65 million Oregon Sustainability Center.

Even though XI-F bonds are technically general obligation bonds, they are not paid for with money from general fund coffers, Saunders said.

鈥淲e are still in the tail of this recession, but we are optimistic that we can move the few projects that we do have on deck forward and so we’ll be working very closely with (legislators) to continue to answer their questions and remind them about the distinction between the bonds that we’re seeking and the ones everyone is asking for kind of a hold on,鈥� Saunders said.

That doesn’t mean that funding is a sure thing by any means.

Several of the requests are continuations of discussions that the Legislature deferred in July. And the viability of private-sector leasing opportunities at the Oregon Sustainability was questioned in September.

While Devlin said the commission’s recommendations were not aimed at XI-F bonds, he did say all requests would need to be considered carefully.

鈥淲e have not suggested any restriction on those (XI-F bonds), although we would still believe, as we have done in the past, that we would be reasonably prudent in the use of those,鈥� Devlin said.

The state does have the capacity to cover approximately $223 million in lottery bonds, because it restructured some of its existing debt in 2011. The Legislature authorized spending for an equal amount of lottery bonds during the last session. Devlin said projects outside of that spending scope 鈥� unless they are critically important 鈥� have little chance of moving forward.

But competing interests for money are lining up, and one of the projects vying for money is a new veterans home in Lebanon.

鈥淲e think the vets home will begin construction this fall,鈥� Linn County Commissioner Roger Nyquist said. 鈥淲hat’s not clear is how the Legislature deals with the inequality of requiring Linn County residents to make a $10.5 million payment for the federal match and then, down in Roseburg, the Legislature decided (it) would take care of that.鈥�

In November 2010, Linn County voters approved a 10-year property tax levy at 19 cents per $1,000 of assessed value to raise money for a federal match program. The state awarded Linn County a contract to construct the veterans home shortly thereafter, Nyquist said.

Then, fewer than 30 days after Linn County made a $10.5 million payment to the state, Nyquist said, legislators decided to cover the entire $10.5 million for another veterans home in Roseburg.

鈥淪o what we’ve said is, 鈥榊ou’re going to do it for Roseburg; you need to do it for us,’ and so if there’s a lottery bonding package we’d like to be included in it,鈥� Nyquist said.

But Devlin said it is doubtful the Legislature will issue that money to anyone 鈥� this year, at least.

鈥淧rior to our most recent couple of debt policy advisory committees, I was saying the chances (that projects will get funding) were slim,鈥� Devlin said. 鈥淣ow I’m saying the chances are 鈥� and this is just me; it’s not the Legislature, nor is it the presiding officers of any of the chambers 鈥� I give it between zero and 1 percent.鈥�