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In 2011, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake leveled much of Christchurch, New Zealand.

鈥淭heir downtown is dead,鈥� said Jay Raskin, principal of , and an adviser of the . 鈥淚t’s gone. It’s still empty and they’re trying to figure out how to build it back. Portland could very easily look like Christchurch.鈥�

Scientists have predicted that a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake will strike Western Oregon within the next 50 years. At particular risk are the state’s 5,000 to 10,000 unreinforced masonry buildings (approximately 1,700 are in Portland) that would likely collapse in such an event.

The HPLO recently released a report, 鈥�Resilient Masonry Buildings 鈥� Saving Lives, Livelihoods, and the Livability of Oregon’s Historic Downtowns,鈥� that outlines strategies for preserving Oregon’s inventory of unreinforced masonry buildings constructed between 1846 and 1940. The report found that while the structures play a vital role in Oregon’s economy, demand is lacking for seismic upgrades.

HPLO Executive Director Peggy Moretti, said the total worth of unreinforced masonry buildings in Portland is approximately $350 million; for Oregon, it’s billions of dollars. Moretti said rehabilitating those buildings could provide a large amount of work for contractors.

鈥淭hen there is the cost of not doing something and this earthquake happens, and then you have all these communities whose downtown is gone,鈥� she said. 鈥淎ll the businesses are out of business (and) all the people in the apartments have no place to live, no place to go to school. What is the economic impact of doing nothing?鈥�

For the city of Jacksonville, a seismic event could topple an entire industry.

In 1966, the former boomtown became the first city in Oregon designated as a National Historic Landmark District. More than 100 buildings were placed on the National Register of Historic Places. Altogether, they represent a tourist attraction that could not be replaced if a major seismic event were to occur.

The most notable building is the former Jackson County Courthouse, which was built in 1884. Today, the building is vacant; however, Amy Stevenson, planning director for the city of Jacksonville, said it’s in the process of acquiring the building from the county. The city is hoping to revitalize the structure and three other historic properties.

A seismic upgrade at the courthouse would cost between $332,500 and $415,625, according to the HPLO report. Stevenson said the city will seek grants to pay for work that would be too costly otherwise.

That’s not an uncommon problem with unreinforced masonry buildings.

鈥淵ou’re usually spending $25 to $40 per square foot just on seismic upgrades, let alone the initial renovation costs,鈥� said Ross Plambeck, a former Portland Development Commission senior project manager who participated in one of four roundtables that preceded the HPLO report. 鈥淵ou get into all these issues about what you can charge per square foot (for seismic work) and usually you can’t charge enough.鈥�

In its report, the HPLO suggests adopting a seismic rating system for unreinforced masonry buildings. Brandon Spencer-Hartle, field services manager for the HPLO, said that could be as simple as hanging a plaque on a building’s front door.

鈥淭he idea is that we need to build public demand for those buildings,鈥� Spencer-Hartle said. 鈥淓verything boils down to economics, and one thing we heard is that there isn’t that much payback to invest in a seismic upgrade.鈥�

Another idea is to extend best practices for dealing with unreinforced masonry buildings throughout the state.

For instance, Plambeck said the city of Portland is flexible enough to let building owners perform upgrades over a period of years. The HPLO, in its report, suggests that other municipalities also adopt a phased approach.

Plambeck said another issue is that no viable incentives exist to spur rehabilitation of unreinforced masonry buildings. Federal tax credits are too narrowly focused on large remodels, and Oregon’s property tax freeze system is outdated, he said.

The report recommends creating new state and local tax incentives, as well as a new insurance pool for historic structures. Moretti said this would be the focus of next year’s roundtables.

For now, she said the HPLO plans to present this year’s report to local and state legislators to see whether they can get the ball rolling. She also sees a poignant lesson in Christchurch.

鈥淭heir downtown commercial district is still closed 鈥� even the buildings that survived are surrounded by rubble,鈥� Moretti said. 鈥淚f you’re (constructing) a new building in the Pearl District, you should be concerned about your neighbor’s building that might fall around your building. Or, if those buildings are gone, you’ve just lost critical mass.鈥�