91视频

If a large Cascadia zone earthquake were to occur today, estimated fatalities in Oregon would number at least 1,200 people and perhaps more than 10,000, according to data included in a recent study compiled by the Oregon Office of Emergency Management. In addition, tens of thousands of buildings would likely be destroyed or damaged, and contribute to more than a million dump truck loads of debris.

鈥淏efore we take action we have to understand what the problem is,鈥� said engineer Ed Quesenberry, who helped compile the study. 鈥淥nce people understand the severity of what they鈥檙e dealing with, then they can start figuring out how to deal with the problem and encourage the government to make the right decisions.鈥�

The Oregon Resilience Plan study came out of a resolution passed by the state Legislature two years ago. Lawmakers asked the Oregon Seismic Safety Policy Advisory Commission (a branch of the OEM) to determine a massive earthquake鈥檚 likely impacts on infrastructure.

The study, the first of its kind conducted by the state, recommends changes and policies that 鈥� if implemented over the next 50 years 鈥� would adequately prepare the state. These recommendations will be presented during the present legislative session.

State officials hope the study will influence both the Legislature and the public to push for funding and change.

鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to be that person crying on CNN because the government hasn鈥檛 helped you yet,鈥� OEM Geologic Hazards Coordinator Althea Rizzo said. 鈥�(It鈥檚 about) what can individuals do for making sure they are prepared because they could be on their own for quite some time.鈥�

The OEM assigned multiple task groups over a year to compile and examine data for the study, which cost only a few thousand dollars to conduct. Around 200 people were involved, and almost all of them volunteered.

Quesenberry, founding principal of Equilibrium Engineers LLC, co-chaired the critical and essential buildings task group, which concentrated on housing, schools, public health facilities and government buildings. Other task groups examined transportation, water and energy infrastructure, among other things.

Hardly any emergency operation centers, police stations and fire stations would remain fully functional after an earthquake, according to the study. It stated that a high percentage of those buildings would need 18 months (far below standards) to be rebuilt and safe to occupy.

Additionally, most education facilities would also need at least 18 months to become operational again. According to data in the study, 12 percent of K-12 facilities in the state have a very high chance of collapsing, 35 percent have a high chance and only 30 percent have a low chance.

鈥淚t鈥檚 quite sobering,鈥� said Jay Raskin, a member of the critical and essential buildings task group and a principal of Ecola Architects. 鈥淭here are many different aspects that basically we鈥檙e not very prepared for.鈥�

A large portion of the data is based on generalizations. A building鈥檚 construction date, the materials used and its location (structures closer to the coast, for example, are more susceptible to damage) all affect seismic resilience.

The study recommends a number of changes, including education of the public. If citizens learn the severity of the issue, there is a better chance that a push will be made for funding, Quesenberry said.

Education can come via programs, literature and advertising. The study itself is a form of outreach, Quesenberry said.

鈥淲e hope this is the start of a conversation,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t will teach people to start asking questions and engaging structural engineers and other infrastructure-related people in conversations of what could be done.鈥�

The study also includes more policy-oriented recommendations. For example, it recommends that a mandatory program be implemented to identify deficient public buildings. Currently, a state law requires seismic rehabilitation of publicly operated emergency centers, police stations and fire stations by 2022, but 鈥渟ubject to available funding.鈥� The recommended program would require local governments to examine public buildings in their area and then ask voters to a support a general obligation bond for the needed work.

Another recommendation would be to require health care support structures 鈥� facilities that hold standby generating power, for example 鈥� to be held to the same seismic design standards as the health care buildings themselves.

Quesenberry recognizes that these recommendations may be more difficult to implement and fund.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not going to be easy,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t has to start with some incentive program for private building owners to take action, whether it鈥檚 tax credits or some other means that the government can put in place to encourage building owners to spend the funds.鈥�

The Legislature鈥檚 plans for the study are unknown at this point. But the responsibility falls on the public, Rizzo said.

鈥淭hey need to push for change,鈥� she said. 鈥淥ur educational use of this report is really taking this message out to people and saying, 鈥楧on鈥檛 expect the fire department to come rescue you 鈥� it鈥檚 your responsibility.鈥� 鈥�