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Portland developers should have a lot to mull over during the next 20 years.

By 2035, Portland is expected to gain 280,000 additional residents, according to a new publication from the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability. It states further that approximately 150,000 new jobs and housing for 132,000 new households will be needed.

The Growth Scenarios Report is part of the Comprehensive Plan update, and is meant to provide insight into how and where the city can accommodate future population levels. The report states that Portland has more than enough zoning capacity for new residential development, but citizens will need to make major decisions about where investments should be made to preserve livability.

“The buildable lands inventory is very illuminating,” said Joe Zehnder, chief planner for the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability. “You have a lot of the Pearl (District) yet to be built; much of the Lloyd Center, Goose Hollow and the South Waterfront … It’s not gigantic change, but it’s big potentially.”

The report envisions four growth possibilities. The first, a default pattern, anticipates development continuing as it has for the past 15 years, with 41,225 additional households arriving in East Portland and 53,768 more in inner neighborhoods.

The second scenario focuses development in neighborhood centers, like Southeast Lents, St. Johns and the Southeast Hawthorne-Division-Belmont area. The third looks at linear growth along key corridors. The fourth compacts growth in the central city and its surrounding neighborhoods. None is mutually exclusive.

If the first scenario reflects growth over the past 15 years, the fourth mirrors growth over the past five years, Zehnder said. Indeed, each possibility anticipates at least 20 to 35 percent of future growth occurring in the central city, where provision of services is most cost-efficient.

Nevertheless, a huge amount of development capacity is on the east side.

“Gateway has lots of zoned capacity,” said Tom Armstrong, supervising planner for BPS and the team leader for the Growth Scenarios Report. “It doesn’t have a zoning problem, (but) we need to look at other ways to incentivize the market to achieve what’s in the Gateway Plan.”

Half of East Portland’s growth potential will be in the Gateway area. However, it has insufficient jobs and transit options for it to meet city standards.

For instance, while the city wants approximately 70 percent of its households to live within a quarter mile of frequent transit, only 47 percent do now. Growth patterns over the next 20 years advance that ratio between 6 and 8 percent, so additional transportation investments will be necessary for Portland to meet its goals.

“The way you get focused growth is investments – public investments,” Zehnder said. “The idea is you do something in those red areas to attract growth to that area.”

The report calls for two investment strategies. One focuses on high-performing areas with relatively complete infrastructures; another concentrates on those that are historically underserved. Other growth challenges will be affordable housing and access to nature.

None of the growth scenarios provides enough affordable housing, so the city will look to increase density. While staffers anticipate construction of just 28,000 single-family residences over the next 20 years, they see demand for nearly 70,000 corridor apartments and as many as 52,000 mid- to high-rise housing units.

Development will be inside the urban growth boundary under current zoning, so neighborhoods will become taller. Private yards will also start to disappear, so accessibility to parks will be crucial.

“We are doing the right thing in terms of preserving (nature), but we’re putting more people further away from nature,” said Eric Engstrom, a principal planner for BPS. “For those very urban places, how do we create some nature connection? By 2035, more people will be less likely to have a tree in their backyard.”

The public will be able to comment on those ideas during a community mapping exercise later this summer. BPS also will soon launch an online site so people can participate in the process.