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Metro staff predicts that 400,000 new residents, needing 200,000 new homes, will move to the Portland area in the next 20 years. Policy makers this year will make land use and urban growth boundary decisions about how to welcome the new residents and where to put them, but not without some controversy.

Metro last month voted to accept a draft 2014 Urban Growth Report assessing the region’s capacity to accommodate in-migration under current policy, as required by Oregon land use laws. In 2015, Metro Council will use the report to consider policy options, including UGB expansion 鈥� though the report concludes that, with the right planning, a boundary expansion may not be necessary.

Gerald Mildner, director of Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate, in September read the draft report and last month released a response titled 鈥�Density at Any Cost.鈥� It criticized many of Metro’s metrics and the tools used to predict them.

Metro staff uses a computer program called MetroScope to simulate, in five-year periods, possible future development in order to plan transportation development, make land use decisions and test alternate policies.

鈥淭his report deserves special attention by citizens and professionals in the local business community because it distorts economic data and will lead the region to make decisions that will harm economic growth,鈥� Mildner wrote. 鈥淭he plan envisions a doubling of apartment rents over twenty years, creating a large burden for low-income houses in the region.鈥�

Mildner, in a phone interview, also criticized Metro’s decision to use data compiled by MetroScope over the most recent five-year period because the economic downturn skewed numbers.

鈥淗ave they come up with an accurate demographic forecast?鈥� he said. 鈥淏ecause I don’t think it’s correct to make 20-year plans based on the last five years of data. It seems urban planners and some elected officials have latched on to the idea that millennials only want to live in the center of town, but (millennials) are going to get married, they’re going to have kids, and living in a downtown one-bedroom apartment isn’t any fun with a kid.鈥�

Mildner called Metro’s UGB expansion into Damascus a 鈥渇ailure,鈥� saying the boundaries need to expand west into Washington County, even though state rules call for UGBs to expand into areas with low agricultural activity, protecting land 鈥� like that in Washington County 鈥� with high agricultural potential from development.

鈥淭he state planning statutes say prime farmland like what’s west toward Hillsboro is a high priority for preservation,鈥� Mildner said. 鈥淭he problem is that the same thing that makes flat land attractive for agriculture also makes it an attractive place for people to live.鈥�

John Williams, Metro deputy planning director, and Molly Vogt, Metro interim research director, jointly wrote a letter to Mildner, standing behind the assertions made in the report and blasting him for making 鈥渟ignificantly misleading statements and errors鈥� in his critique.

鈥淲e have made efforts to provide information and clarity that could assist you in gaining an understanding and conducting an effective review of our work,鈥� the letter states. 鈥淲e offered to meet with you to answer your questions but you declined.鈥�

The letter goes on to point out 10 鈥渟erious problems鈥� with Mildner’s statements about the report, including his critique of MetroScope, his assertion that people will want to move away from the city center as they age and begin families, and his methodology in predicting a doubling of rents in the next 20 years.

鈥淵our findings are skewed because you inflate housing prices but not wages,鈥� the letter states. 鈥淵ou ignore the fact that people are voting with their feet. The popularity and redevelopment of close-in neighborhoods, main streets and town centers is based on the fact that many people want to live in communities where they can walk, use transit or bike if they want.鈥�

Williams and Vogt wrote that they stand behind their work and the data in the report and that they welcome 鈥渞easonable and factual debate鈥� as Metro Council moves toward making a decision about whether to expand the UGB.

Craig Beebe, Metro’s public affairs specialist, said it’s important to remember that the report, though accepted by the council, doesn’t create policy; it simply encourages conversation and decision making.

鈥淭he (Urban Growth Report) isn’t a plan,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t’s a report; a check-in on where plans already adopted by local communities and the region are taking us, along with market trends, infrastructure needs, and so on. Like all reports, it raises questions but does not answer them.鈥�

Those questions will be debated and answered over the next year, as Metro Council members meet with stakeholders, interpret data and consider concept plans from individual communities. In December, the council will make a decision and adopt a policy that strives to meet the area’s 20-year housing and employment needs.