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It’s a new year and the right time to take up a new topic in this space. Previously I discussed projects and market issues in Portland’s South Waterfront District. But with the start of the new year, I am pivoting my gaze beyond the city center to new horizons. I will spend 2015 delving into just what exactly is happening with the urban growth boundary in the Portland-metro area.

For those uninitiated in the legal framework for UGB amendments, some context is in order. State law mandates that Metro Council review and amend the UGB every six years in order to meet the region’s residential and industrial land needs for the next 20 years. This is one of those decisive years; the next decision on whether to add more land to the UGB is scheduled to be made toward the end of this year.

In the coming months Metro will mull over considerations such as how much acreage to bring into the UGB. How much of that acreage should be for residential or employment uses? And which particular tracts of land should be included?

Metro’s decision-making process is guided by state law intended to balance the need for urban land with protection and retention of high-value agricultural and forest lands. which land has first priority for inclusion in the UGB over the next 50 years (the urban reserves) and which land is protected from inclusion in the UGB over the next 50 years (the rural reserves).

Metro will determine which urban reserves, if any, will be brought into the UGB. In order to do so, Metro must forecast the land needs for the entire region for the next 20 years. Such forecasting is necessarily uncertain and based on any number of policy decisions that are less than scientific.

To assist in this process, Metro Council adopted the , which provides copious amounts of information and analysis of the scenarios under which the region can grow, and ultimately suggests that Metro not include any additional acreage in the UGB until the next six-year decision cycle.

The recommendation to stand pat is contentious and not favored by many stakeholders, including cities, counties and industry groups. Each has its own set of interests, which Metro will attempt to balance to determine what is best for the region as a whole. The methodologies used to come to the stand-pat recommendation are also malleable, so the Urban Growth Report is far from the final word on the subject.

I will use this space to follow the UGB amendment process throughout the year, and touch on the following topics:

鈥� What housing development trends does Metro project?

鈥� On what issues do Portland and the suburbs have diverging interests?

鈥� Is there an adequate industrial land supply to support employment growth commensurate with projected population growth?

鈥� Will there be another UGB-related 鈥淕rand Bargain鈥� at the Legislature?

鈥� Is the future of the Stafford triangle rural or urban?

鈥� What will be done with Damascus?

In 2015, the UGB amendment process is likely to provide contentious debate among a broad constituency of regional interests. Contact me if there are specific topics you’d like me to address.

Damien Hall focuses on land use and real estate law as an attorney at Ball Janik LLP. Contact him at 503-944-6138 or [email protected].