Stephen Alexander//October 26, 2015//
The supply-and-demand principle is in full effect for office space in the Portland-metro area and throughout the nation, according to third-quarter market reports from Colliers International‘s Portland office. The constrained supply of space is expected to remain an issue in the future.
鈥淭here have been announcements of a number of properties that are mostly infill and small鈥 exchanging hands, Colliers senior vice president Mike Holzgang said, noting that low interest rates are encouraging transactions. 鈥淒espite the fact that there’s a lot of money available for well-conceived projects, they’re much smaller. There’s not as big of an appetite for risk after the financial crisis that we experienced.鈥
Holzgang said that how supply and demand for office space will play out in the future is 鈥渢he question of the day.鈥 He performed a study for one of his clients and found that from April 2013 to April 2014, rental rates for top-tier office space jumped 16.57 percent. He believes that rental rates will continue to rise, though probably closer to 5 percent annually.
鈥淚t will be a smaller growth, but significant growth nonetheless,鈥 he said. 鈥淎 five percent rental growth is significant because it constrains supply.鈥
Portland is in the second year of a 10-year period during which experts have predicted 1 million new residents. Holzgang believes that could cause problems.
鈥淭he biggest concern I have is infrastructure in the urban areas,鈥 he said. 鈥淧eople are moving to Gresham and Vancouver, (Washington) because that’s where the affordable housing is. But a lot of them are working in the urban environments in the Greater Portland area.鈥
Meanwhile, according to Colliers International’s midyear U.S. Capital Flows research report, commercial property investment in the U.S. was up 38 percent year-over-year, but down quarter-over-quarter because of dwindling quality supply. Investors are still finding deals in select markets. In Portland, sales volume in the third quarter alone was $680 million, largely because the U.S. Bancorp Tower and Block 300 both sold.