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Despite rapid population growth in and around Portland, one popular form of housing has stubbornly refused to take off 鈥� condominiums.

Firms here are watching Seattle and San Francisco, studying the feasibility of bringing online large condo projects to satisfy demand for new housing. Individually-owned multifamily units have traditionally been geared toward young people and empty nesters, and as ways to provide affordable homeownership and greater density. But opinions are mixed on if and when Portland will experience another condo boom. Some observers even say this form of homeownership has left the state for good.

鈥淚 don’t think condos are ever going to come back,鈥� TMT Development President Vanessa Sturgeon said.

She added that she thinks more condos will be built eventually, but that previous boom times may eventually prove to be the real outlier.

Others, like Greg Frick of HFO Investment Real Estate, disagree.

鈥淵ou’ve got a huge demand,鈥� he said. 鈥淧ortland is exploding right now. A lot of people want to live here. As housing gets tight, you’ll start to see condos (built).鈥�

Firms like Ankrom Moisan Architects, with offices in Seattle and Portland, are researching 鈥� and waiting.

鈥淚 think the next condo boom is going to look a lot different,鈥� said Karen Bowery, a principal at Ankrom Moisan.

Residential development in Portland has increased rapidly since 2011. The value of residential permits issued has increased about 100 percent in that time, according to the Bureau of Development Services.

To meet the massive demand for housing, developers have favored apartments for their low cost and lower risk. But despite the new inventory, Portland is frequently listed among U.S. cities with the highest and fastest-growing rent. In September, rents here grew 9 percent over the national average, according to online listing agency ApartmentList.

Eventually the pendulum will have to swing away from renting and back toward homeownership, contends economist Josh Lehner of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. He asks how long the apartment boom can last in a paper published this month: 鈥淚s 2015 Peak Renter?鈥�

In short, Lehner believes young people are urbanizing, but not buying homes like previous generations. He expects this to change as they age and national financial conditions improve, because homeownership remains one of the best ways to build wealth.

鈥淭he millennials are going to go through the same life cycles as everyone else; it’s just that they’re doing it a few years later,鈥� he said.

Another potential group of new condo buyers could be retiring baby boomers looking to urbanize. But there is little evidence that this is shaking out, Lehner said.

鈥淚’ll believe it when I see it,鈥� he said.

Hoyt Street Properties‘ Cosmopolitan tower, set to open in July 2016 in the north Pearl District, is the only major condo project under construction in Portland. As of Monday, only 23 of its 150 units remained unsold, according to a spokeswoman. Hoyt Street Properties’ previous condo tower built in the Pearl District, the Encore, opened to the market in 2009 and required five years to sell out.

The building community is watching Cosmopolitan unit sales with interest, Hoffman Construction Vice President Bart Eberwein said. It’s also watching millennials.

鈥淲hat drove the boom before was people really were willing to put a significant amount of net worth into a condo at a pretty young age, and a lot of people got burned,鈥� he said. 鈥淎 cat’ll never sit on a hot stove again. And it might not sit on a cold one.鈥�

But because of several factors that make builders and developers leery of condos, new housing projects may mostly be other types.

Though similar to apartments, condos cost more to build and nearly three times as much to insure. In Oregon, condos also carry a much higher risk of drawing a lawsuit. (Laws in Washington don’t allow homeowners associations as much time to sue over construction defects, which could contribute to differences in the Seattle and Portland condo markets.)

At the moment, condos are less desirable from a development standpoint, said Jeff Sackett, principal at Capstone Investments. After the housing crash, lenders tightened financing practices for condo projects, he explained. Plus, many young people would prefer to live in a single-family house, he said.

鈥淣o, I don’t think we’re likely to get a condo boom, but certainly we’ll see more condos,鈥� he said.

Prior to the Great Recession, many developers converted in-construction apartments to condos when additional financing was secured. But that isn’t happening these days, said Trish Nixon, principal at LRS Architects.

鈥淲e’re not even having those conversations right now,鈥� she said. 鈥淚 think apartments are still in such high demand that that’s where the focus is.鈥�

Metro certainly believes a condo boom is on the horizon. Its revised 2014 Urban Growth Report predicts a threefold increase driven by demand between 2015 and 2035.

鈥淭his marks a significant change in consumer product demand,鈥� reads the report’s Appendix 4.

Observers like Gerard Mildner, director of Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate, say Metro is being too optimistic. By not expanding its urban growth boundary, it assumes a major shift toward multifamily housing and away from single-family homes.

鈥淢any of us in real estate feel they’re overemphasizing high density,鈥� Mildner said. 鈥溾�� They’re assuming these patterns we’re seeing are going to continue forever. That’s a complete reversal of historical trends.

鈥淲hat’s missing in that is that people are ultimately going to make their decisions. We aren’t sheep. We aren’t lab rats in a maze.鈥�

Steve Tinney, director of business development at Ankrom Moisan Architects, thinks condos will start to come back after apartment rents top out.

鈥淲e’re excited,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e’re excited about what we can do for our clients.鈥�