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When will the good times end?

The next recession, whenever it arrives, is increasingly a topic of discussion among developers.

For now, development is booming amid strong demand for office, residential, commercial and industrial space. Rents are up, vacancies are down and migration into Portland is strong.

鈥淚t really is as good as it’s ever been across all product types,鈥� said Chris Nelson, co-founder of Capstone Partners, developer with Cairn Pacific of the L.L. Hawkins and Leland James building projects on Con-way property in Slabtown.

Yet for those developers who endured the crash of 2008 and lean economic times after 9/11, all the good news only makes them nervous.

鈥淧aranoid optimism鈥� is how Nelson described his mindset Wednesday. His comments came at a morning panel hosted by Bisnow at the Portland Marriott Downtown Waterfront hotel.

鈥淎s long as we have robust job growth, things are going to feel pretty good,鈥� he said.

Others expressed concern about where capital markets are headed.

鈥淲e’re in the ninth inning,鈥� said Jordan Menashe, vice president at Menashe Properties. 鈥淢aybe we’ll get a few extra innings.

鈥淲hether you’re a buyer, seller or developer, let’s be careful,鈥� he added.

Nelson said that in today’s environment, he would avoid signing a nonrecourse loan, which typically puts up property as collateral. He said he had to give a building back during the recession, and it wasn’t fun.

Land prices in the Con-way area are approaching the point where additional projects may not be profitable, Nelson said.

鈥淲e’d love to do more office in that area, but I think it’s going to be a challenge,鈥� he said.

Nelson added that he wouldn’t start a project like Park Avenue West now because of economic uncertainty and the long lead time before delivery.

TMT Development‘s Park Avenue West tops out at 30 stories and 546,000 square feet. Its 13 stories of office space are now 100 percent leased, said Nick Fritel, TMT’s chief financial officer. About 20 percent of the 202 apartments are leased, he said.

An anchor retailer is being sought for Park Avenue West’s ground floor. 鈥淲hat we envision there is a flagship location, a first-to-market retail,鈥� Fritel said.

Menashe Properties is hoping to break ground in mid-June on a 60,000-square-foot office building in the West End. An existing building will be demolished, Menashe said.

鈥淎s soon as I get a permit, we will be building and it will get built,鈥� he said.

The company is also developing a Canopy by Hilton hotel in the Pearl District.

Bruce Wood, a real estate analyst at the Portland Development Commission and a former developer himself, said he had largely exited the market; he has sold all of his assets but one.

The panel was billed as a discussion of Portland’s workplace of the future, but it evolved into a discussion of development and certain projects.

Wood gave an update on the PDC’s planned development of the 14-acre U.S. Postal Service property that bridges downtown and the Pearl District. He said the deal is nearly done.

鈥淓xecuting documents are on everybody’s desk,鈥� he said. 鈥淚’m waiting for the call to wire the funds to escrow.鈥�

Development will total approximately 4.5 million square feet, with a 7-to-1 floor area ratio for some of the space, Wood said.

The project has a long timeline, with a request for proposals slated for January 2017.

鈥淲e can’t engage with a private development company until next year,鈥� he said.

Wood doesn’t expect property to change hands at the Postal Service site until 2019.

鈥淭here will be a very robust public process,鈥� he said.