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Portland housing market sizzling

By: Chuck Slothower//May 9, 2016//

Portland housing market sizzling

Chuck Slothower//May 9, 2016//

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Portland-area homes sold faster and for a higher median price than they did in March 2015, according to RMLS. (Sam Tenney/91Ƶ)
Portland-area homes sold faster and for a higher median price than they did in March 2015, according to . (Sam Tenney/91Ƶ)

All signs point to a strong market for single-family homes this year, with tight inventory propelling prices higher.

Portland-area homes sold for a median price of $335,000 in March, a 15.5 percent jump from $290,000 a year earlier, according to listing service RMLS.

Meanwhile, houses are also selling faster. Time on market fell to 51 days, down from 75 days in March 2015.

Portland has one of the nation’s hottest real estate markets. The city had the strongest price increase in the nation in February at 11.9 percent, compared to a year earlier, according to the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index.

“When a good property comes on the market, it’s sold quickly,” said Jeff Wiren, principal broker with RE/MAX Equity Group in Portland. “It still needs to be priced competitively, but if it’s priced competitively, it will likely get multiple offers.”

New listings remain scarce, with only 3,409 homes coming on the market in March, down from 3,596 a year earlier.

 

Tight inventory affects everything

Low inventory is perhaps defining Portland’s real estate market this year. Although listings are seeing a seasonal increase, they remain far below what is normally seen this time of year.

“Probably the biggest challenge today is finding homes,” said Bil Willis, principal broker at ERA Freeman and Associates in Gresham.

That is putting a lid on the overall market, he said. Pending sales fell 9 percent in March, compared to a year ago, according to RMLS.

“Our market is plateauing in some respects because there just isn’t enough inventory to meet the demand,” Willis said.

Tight inventory has a compounding effect, agents said. Potential sellers are unwilling to jump into the market because they don’t want to sell their existing home before they can lock down a new residence.

“Think about a frog jumping across a lily pond,” said Mark Meek of Summa Real Estate Executives in Clackamas. “If there’s no lily pad to jump onto next, you’re a little unwilling to make that leap.”

Willis agreed.

“If the seller sells their home, they have no place to go,” he said. “They’re very hesitant about finding themselves homeless.”

Another problem is that in increasingly common multiple-offer scenarios, contingent offers often don’t measure up. Sellers, in addition to the highest price, want the simplest transaction available.

Inventory could begin to ease as new home construction comes onto the market in places such as Hillsboro, Happy Valley, unincorporated Washington County and some limited infill in Portland proper. But real estate agents said they don’t expect new inventory to make much of a dent in demand this year.

Builders in the fourth quarter of 2015 were issued 3,261 permits for private housing in the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro Metropolitan Statistical Area, according to Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate. That was a 5 percent increase from the same period a year earlier.

“I think we’re starting to see some new construction come on board, but it just can’t come on fast enough,” Wiren said.

Now that the market has come roaring back from the recession, there’s a lag as projects take more than a year from conception to completion.

The lack of single-family homes is pushing some buyers into the condominium market, which has seen a revival since dropping off during the recession.

“I’m seeing a huge demand in condominium sales,” Wiren said. “There’s just nothing available in the detached market.”

Jessica Tindell, principal broker of Tindell & Co., recently sold a Pearl District condominium to a buyer from California who is starting a residency at Oregon Health and Science University.

The condo market is “very aggressive,” Tindell said. “We’re seeing condos go probably $50,000 over asking (price).”

One wild card: Intel recently announced it will lay off 784 employees at its facilities in Hillsboro and Aloha. That could pry some housing stock loose in Washington County as former Intel employees move elsewhere.

“If a whole bunch of homes go on the market all at once, that’ll make it more competitive for buyers,” Meek said.

 

Cash sales

Cash is king, goes the old saying. It remains relevant as buyers from other areas – particularly California, Seattle and even abroad – sink money into Portland real estate.

Cash offers are increasingly common, and winning out among multiple offers.

“I’ve seen more cash (offers) in the last three years than I’ve seen in the 30 years prior to,” Willis said.

Swollen home values in California, Seattle and other West Coast markets are driving cash offers in Portland.

“Their price point is a little bit higher,” Meek said. “The cash buyers are from out of state, a lot of them. But there are some cash buyers in state.”

In some cases, in-state cash buyers are downsizing from a large home to a more modest residence that fits an empty-nester lifestyle.

 

Pondering the market’s future

“It’s a very different circumstance and I don’t see this bubble bursting,” Tindell said. “I see Portland continuing to be a place of development and growth and opportunity.”

Portland and Oregon continue to attract in-migration. Overbuilding often presages a bubble bursting, but Portland has an acute lack of inventory. Interest rates remain low, and regulators have not seen fit to encourage anything more than a modest, gradual rise. And mortgage lenders are more careful than during the run-up to the Great Recession.

Some observers see clouds on the horizon. Wage growth remains far below housing appreciation. Student and credit-card debt are holding back some first-time homebuyers. And anything from further corporate layoffs to an economic reckoning in China could eventually pop the bubble, or at least slow its rise.

But for now, those concerns seem remote.

“I would tell buyers to get in while they can,” Tindell said. “The housing market is a good, stable thing to put your money into.”



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