Chuck Slothower//November 17, 2016//

Political uncertainty was foremost on the minds of developers and real estate investors at NAIOP Oregon‘s development forum on Wednesday.
Locally, Mayor-elect Ted Wheeler’s incoming administration was the source of hope among developers. But the election of Chloe Eudaly as city commissioner was cited as an uncertainty. And a raft of city policies, including inclusionary zoning and rent control, loomed over the discussion held at the Sentinel Hotel.
“We left the meeting feeling very hopeful about his administration moving forward,” Barragar said.
Portland’s city leaders need to provide a more business-friendly environment, said Jordan Schnitzer, president of Harsch Investment Properties.
“From my perspective, we haven’t had business-friendly leadership statewide or citywide in many years,” he said.
Schnitzer’s comments came despite a development boom that has reached a fever pitch this fall.
He also waded into the City Council race that bounced incumbent Steve Novick. Schnitzer referred to Eudaly as “that gal that beat Steve Novick.”
“We have someone on City Council not a lot of folks in this room have a relationship with or know,” he said. “Is that good or bad? Time will tell.”
Eric Clapp, managing director of Westport Capital Partners LLC, said Portland is friendlier to development than some markets in California. He said he’s worked in places such as Laguna Beach, California, and Napa Valley that “make Portland look business-friendly.”
Rob Hinnen, founding partner of developer Cairn Pacific, said President-elect Donald Trump’s pledges of new infrastructure spending “could certainly be good for our business.”
The pace of multifamily development in Portland is unsustainable, Hinnen said.
“I’ve felt like it’s been overheated for a while,” he said. “I might be wrong about that – eventually I’ll be right.”
Wood-frame apartment construction in particular has seen sharp increases in construction costs, Hinnen said.
“I do think the cycle is mature,” he said. “It’s time to be careful in how deals are structured. Understand your debt, understand your equity, understand your covenants.”
Developers have less exposure than before previous recessions, Hinnen said, minimizing the downside risks if the market turns south.
Cairn Pacific is busy transforming the Slabtown area of Northwest Portland with a mix of multifamily, office, retail and parking development.
Westport Capital Partners is at work along with Sentinel Development on a renovation of the Towne Storage building at the east end of the Burnside Bridge. The seismic retrofit of the 101-year-old building is complete, and construction is under way, Clapp said.
Westport Capital Partners was persistent in looking for a Portland property to develop, Clapp said.
“It’s an emerging city with a lot of good fundamentals,” he said.
Harsch will start construction this month on a nine-story creative office and retail building at 151 S.E. Alder St. in the Central Eastside, Schnitzer said. The 90,000-square-foot building is being designed by Works Partnership Architecture.
Looking outside the Portland market, Harsch has in recent months bought up industrial properties in Nevada and California.
Schnitzer said Harsch is holding off on building a multifamily tower at 18th Avenue and Alder Street, near Providence Park, to wait on Portland’s market to absorb recent multifamily construction.
“If we get started on this, it’ll probably be (2019),” he said.
Hinnen said that timing makes sense. Cairn Pacific also has plans for projects to begin then, he said.
“That sounds like the right timeframe when the construction industry will be hungry again,” he said.
The developer is pursuing city approval for a multifamily project at the George Morlan Plumbing building, at 2222 N.W. Raleigh St. Construction could begin around 2019.
Rents may be flat or falling at the moment, and more buildings are offering concessions, Hinnen said.
“Long-term I’m very bullish about apartments in Portland,” he said. “I might be cautious in the short term, but bullish in the long term.”