91视频

Bob Whelan grew up on Waverly Place, in Manhattan, fueled by espresso. His Italian mother used it to counteract what he suspects might today be diagnosed as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

He’d go on to fall asleep in his college business classes, which didn’t grab him the same as the earth sciences. A technical knowledge base, plus strong communication skills, aided him as a consultant for the oil and gas industry, and later as a mineral economist for the state of Oregon.

Since coming to ECONorthwest 21 years ago, Whelan has authored provocative studies questioning, among other things, the poverty-reducing capacity of a $15 minimum wage and the supposed strength of the Portland job market. He caused a minor panic at Portland State University, he says, after discussing how recycling, rather than saving trees, actually reduces them.

People always try to shoot the messenger, he said.

Whelan recently spoke with the 91视频. This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

91视频: Do you feel the credibility of your field is under attack?

Bob Whelan: Well, it’s the same with journalism, but it’s no different than it’s ever been. I’ve been working for 40 years, and I’ve seen a lot. I’ve lived the whole spectrum of things. People often think that what’s happening is unprecedented. That’s all B.S. They’re talking now about fake news. Well, did you forget about the Maine? Or the Gulf of Tonkin? Lyndon Johnson made up an attack to keep money flowing to the Vietnam War.

91视频: Those are examples, but there seems to be a level of distrust in institutions today that runs pretty deep.

Whelan: Yeah there is. Part of it seems to be this big separation. The fact that people here are shocked that Trump won is absolutely stunning. I can’t understand it.

91视频: People in the building industry have a hard time with the fact that young people, by and large, don’t seem to want to pursue skilled craft work.

Whelan: It’s a big problem. And you’re really going to run into it in two years. The thing is, we’ve had a really strong economy. I guess it’s because politicians can’t run on a strong economy. So both Trump and Clinton ran on the economy being terrible, the middle class is disappearing. Really? I mean, really? When I moved here 30 years ago, Ladd’s Addition was a dump, not a wealthy area like it is now.

91视频: Well some might say, Bob, you’re living up here in your liberal Portland bubble 鈥� but is the rest of the country seeing the same gains?

Whelan: Other parts of the country have seen much better gains than us 鈥� we’re actually not doing too well. Portland has just been a basket case in private-sector job growth. We rank near the bottom.

There are a lot of these lies for political purpose. Bernie Sanders was enormous at this. I would roll my eyes whenever he would talk. It was absurd. And Donald Trump, who of course is a whipping boy for everybody here, would do the same thing. He would say he’s going to bring back manufacturing jobs. And then what 鈥� do you want to work in a sock factory? Who the hell wants to work in a sock factory? That’s exactly what would happen if you put a 35 percent tariff on imports from Vietnam. There’s already a 20-something tariff on athletic shoes. There’s a 5-percent tariff on Honda Civics 鈥� I don’t know why.

In the construction world, you got a couple things going. You do have an overbuilding of hotels. There’s no doubt about it. There are openings for a couple different kinds of hotels. The very high-end, luxury hotels 鈥� the city could use, like in the Pearl District. That area is under-hoteled for sure.

But for the most part, tourism is nearing a peak in Portland, if not peaking. In fact, the latest tourism numbers show pretty much flat. This is because Portland benefited from 鈥楶ortlandia,’ weirdly enough. There were ads for 鈥楶ortlandia’ at bus stops in Denmark. It’s big in Europe. And they all come up here and look around. They shop. But they’re not going to come back a second time. Because this isn’t Disneyland; there’s nothing else to do. So that’s peaking and the international tourism is being hurt by Trump, and hotel prices are extremely expensive. A mid-week room at the Marriott here with tax and parking is over $300. Who can afford that?

91视频: Some of these hotels are catering to millennials.

Whelan: Because they’re the hot topic, and the traditional hotel doesn’t cater to them. So what they do is have these very nice lobbies and group-meeting things, [gestures to ECONorthwest’s furniture island] this kind of crap. And that’s 鈥� that’s nothing.

91视频: What about Airbnb and the rise of peer-to-peer room rentals?

Whelan: Airbnb 鈥� half its business is people who stay more than seven days. The average hotel stay is three days. Corporations don’t like allowing their people to use Airbnb, because of security.

We’re just overbuilt. We’re adding in the next two years 25 percent to the supply. The fundamental demand for hotels is only rising 1, 2 percent a year.

91视频: The Columbia River Crossing plan has been revived by the Washington State Legislature. What about tolling to pay for it here in Oregon?

Whelan: We may have no choice. Because right now, you’re depending on gas taxes and charging more for registration, and there’s a limit to what you can do. Plus, people are driving electric cars. Why should a guy who can afford a Tesla not pay anything toward the roads? Why should a guy on bicycle not pay anything for the pavement he’s riding on?

91视频: What about unions, are they going away for good?

Whelan: I don’t know. I think there will always be a need for some unions. The way I look at it is, managements can organize. Why can’t workers be organized? There are still companies that do not do a good job with employee relations, or are abusive, so I don’t think unions are gone.

If you have a union that really takes seriously training and advancement, and just doesn’t sit there, that is optimal. But if you’re part of a union that is just doing what’s basically extortion, like the longshoreman’s union 鈥� by the way, you wanna talk about the 鈥�1 percent?’ Longshore union members earn in the 99.4 percentile of wages in the state of Oregon. They are the 鈥�1 percent’ that Bernie Sanders was screaming about. They literally make more than a pediatrician, more than an experienced lawyer. And they don’t have to work 鈥� if they don’t work they still get paid. And their jobs are all unnecessary because they could all be done by machinery.

One of the problems that the construction unions have to worry about is robotics. Thirty years from now, robots will be doing a lot of the work in construction. It’s a concern.

91视频: CLT is a hot topic in the building industry and in Oregon. Some say new mass timber methods could help revive the timber industry. What do you make of that?

Whelan: The construction industry is very slow to adopt new ideas, because it’s just too risky. If you’re trying to develop an app, and it turns out to be a total bomb, what do you lose? You spend $20,000 worth of labor, and you chalk it up and go on to the next thing. But if you decide to build a building and use a material that is not thoroughly tested and it fails, they’ll take your house away. You’ll lose millions and millions of dollars. If someone dies on the job doing it, oh man, your conscience 鈥� Productivity in construction is slow 鈥� weirdly slow. That’s one problem with cross-laminated timber. Plus, there’s a lot of interest embedded in not using it.

91视频: Some opponents of CLT make the argument that by funding the testing of tall wood building concepts, government is 鈥減laying favorites.鈥�

Whelan: That’s what government does. Your industry isn’t going to do it themselves. If you own a company in an industry, you’re not going to be doing expensive research, because most of the benefits are going to go to your competitors. So you depend on the government to do it.

Fracking, by the way, when it was brought up in the late 1970s, it was the federal government that was pushing the idea. People in the oil and gas industries thought it was a total waste of government money. 鈥淕overnment waste!鈥� they would scream. Now it’s saving them.

91视频: It’s the time in the interview to talk about Trump. His idea for a border wall with Mexico 鈥� leaving aside ethical arguments, is it even feasible?

Whelan: No. It’s an imbecilic idea.

How the hell do you even put a wall in the middle of the Rio Grande River? It’s a waste of money, and here’s a very important fact: If you don’t have immigration, you have a declining economy. Take out first-generation Americans and the labor force in America is shrinking.

The other thing about immigrants: It’s amazing how many new businesses are started by immigrants. The ones who have the gumption and the courage to leave a country and wait in line to get into some other country 鈥� an arduous task 鈥� are the ones that have the most psychologically-predisposed behaviors to start new businesses. There is a 42-to-1 ratio of first-generation Hispanics to non-Hispanics starting businesses in the U.S. That’s huge. If there’s a trend to watch in Oregon, it’s the huge emerging Hispanic middle class. Without immigrants, we’re doomed.