91视频

Transportation in the future is expected by many experts to look a lot different than it does today. Instead of driving a car or taking mass transit both to and from work, people will likely follow a service model of delivery, according to engineers and city planners.

鈥淵ou are going to get the idea of mobility as a service rather than something (such as a car) that you get around in the same time all the time,鈥� said Art Pearce, policy, planning and projects group manager for the Portland Bureau of Transportation. 鈥淲e will understand it as a service each time. It will be an individual choice.鈥�

A person might take transit to work and then use Uber or Lyft to get home. Add in car-sharing services such as Car2Go and the possibility of autonomous vehicles, and adjusting to that landscape becomes a major challenge for planners.

鈥淲e are struggling to develop new models,鈥� said Adrian Pearmine, DKS‘ national director for smart cities and connected vehicles. 鈥淲e have traditional land use models that are based on single-occupancy vehicles owned by the person driving it. We see that going away.鈥�

Trying to address today’s problem in ways that aren’t obsolete in the next decade causes major headaches for the people making budgetary decisions.

鈥淚t makes it difficult to look at major new roadways or things like that,鈥� Pearmine said. 鈥淏y the time they get planned, built and they cut the ribbon, we expect to be seeing less use by then.鈥�

A city, for example, could need a 15-story garage to take care of a current parking crunch, but half of those spots might sit empty in the future.

鈥淪ome of the things we advise is if you are going to build that structure today, build it in a way that it can be changed into a condo or office tower,鈥� said Jim Peters, a DKS principal.

Some cities are already experiencing problems not foreseen completely. San Francisco now has so many Uber and Lyft drivers that streets are even more congested than before the services existed. Drivers often drop off or pick up riders in the middle of streets because there aren’t enough curb cutouts to easily accommodate stops.

鈥淥ne of the things interesting about San Francisco is that they are farther along (in infrastructure development),鈥� Pearce said. 鈥淭hey show we have to develop a more efficient use of the roadway space.鈥�

Cities must be careful not to create new problems when they address existing ones, Pearce said. For example, Portland will have to figure out a way to create more drop-off zones while not cutting into cycling lanes or harming traffic flow, he said.

Plus, driverless vehicles could present even bigger challenges in the future.

鈥淭he cost of that trip with a driverless car is reduced 80 percent,鈥� Peters said. 鈥淎 (ride-sharing service) trip from Southeast Portland to the airport could be reduced to $4.鈥�

But while a driverless vehicle could present cost savings to the rider, it could make traffic issues even worse.

鈥淲hat we don’t want is that person using a (driverless) car to go to work, then sending the car home because it is free to park and then calling it back,鈥� Peters said. 鈥淭hen you have a lot of zero-occupancy cars traveling around the city.鈥�

On the other hand, driverless vehicles could be used to lessen the need for parking structures at transit centers, making public transit cheaper to build and easier to use.

鈥淚f we can do things with driverless shuttles that are running around neighborhoods and taking people to those (transit) stations, then the two complement each other,鈥� Pearmine said.

Fortunately for planners, they have time to find the best ways to implement such technologies. Fully automated cars driving down every city street is still decades away, according to Steven Shladover, California PATH program manager at the University of California, Berkeley. The professor has studied automation of transportation for 45 years.

鈥淭hey will probably try to introduce (prototypes) in public use within the next few years,鈥� he said 鈥淏ut only on sections of roads 鈥� they have very contained.鈥�

The first prototypes will initially have drivers. Even after drivers are removed from the cars, operators will still be able to control them by remote. The most likely path for wide-scale use of the driverless vehicles would involve set lanes on streets specifically designed to deal with the cars’ limitations, according to Shladover.

For instance, in some European countries, curbside parking has been eliminated on test streets so that the autonomous car doesn’t have to account for pedestrians walking between cars. Also, street curbs have been altered to force bicyclists to slow when crossing streets.

The city of Portland is examining how to incorporate the technology into its transportation network.

鈥淲e are focusing a lot on the overall effect of autonomous vehicles,鈥� Pearce said. 鈥淥ne of the keys is making sure we can direct it to get health and climate outcomes we want. We want it to be a really positive innovation.鈥�

The Portland Bureau of Transportation has been asking technology companies what kinds of infrastructure changes they will need and investigating the chances of a pilot program for some prototype cars.

鈥淲e hope to move towards further piloting into the winter and next year,鈥� Pearce said. 鈥淚t depends on whether there is an entity interested in testing with us. It might be on the raceway before piloting on city streets.鈥�

Even once the bugs are worked out of the technology, questions remain about the public’s willingness to turn over the wheel to a computer. Large-scale use of the technology is inevitably going to lead to crashes. How that affects public opinion of the technology is an open question, according to Mark Vandehey, president of Kittelson & Associates.

鈥淚 think it has the potential,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here are a lot of hurdles that have to be overcome.鈥�

Whether ride sharing, autonomous vehicles or a technology not yet conceived, it will have to be used in a way that preserves livability.

鈥淭he big question from my standpoint is how all of this fits together,鈥� said Jim Hencke, an urban designer at David Evans & Associates. 鈥淒oes this create a place people love? It’s not much use if it only moves people, but creates a horrible place that nobody wants to be.鈥�