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Over the summer, three major natural disasters hit different regions of the U.S. In 2018, their impact is expected to begin reaching firms in the building industry.

鈥淲hat we are starting to here from contractors is that there is going to be an impact to everybody’s schedule nationally,鈥� said Dan Danielson, managing principal at Soderstrom Architects. 鈥淣obody knows what is going to happen with the three calamities 鈥� two hurricanes and a major fire.鈥�

Hurricanes Irma and Harvey as well as wildfires in Northern California are expected to affect construction projects far beyond the regions they struck. Architecture firms and contractors in the Pacific Northwest may soon find a host of materials harder to come by because of greater demand tied to disaster-related reconstruction.

Requests for proposals issued for a Soderstrom Architects project at the University of Portland yielded unease from contractors, Danielson said. The RFP for Dundon-Berchtold Hall proposed construction wrapping up in January 2019.

鈥淭hat is the only (aspect) that contractors have balked at,鈥� he said. 鈥淧retty much across the board contractors have asked for more time.鈥�

For that project, contractors got more time. Builders told university officials that they could meet the proposed January 2019 deadline, but doing so would increase the cost by at least 5 percent because of increases tied to acquisition of materials and overtime pay for workers. UP officials decided to push the deadline back five months to avoid paying more.

That could be the tip of a project schedule iceberg. People are asking how big the disasters’ impact will be.

鈥淚 get that question from owners a lot,鈥� said Rob Fallow, senior project manager at Fortis Construction, which won the contract to build Dundon-Berchtold Hall. 鈥淚t’s hard to pinpoint what it might be at this stage.鈥�

Much of the country’s carpet and flooring materials come from areas in the southeast that were affected by Hurricane Irma, Fallow said. That could lead to delays acquiring those materials. Also, the labor shortage could worsen. In July, before the string of disasters hit, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were 225,000 construction job openings across the U.S.

鈥淭he construction market has been so busy that the workers don’t really have to travel,鈥� said Dan Drinkward, vice president at Hoffman Construction. 鈥淪till, when one market is busy it affects everyone. Right now there is good money here. It will still be strained here. It will be very strained.鈥�

The biggest time crunch will likely come from pressure to supply items such as drywall, shingles and gypsum. Demand for each of those products escalates when thousands of structures are destroyed at one time and must be rebuilt.

鈥淒rywall will be one material that will be affected,鈥� Drinkward said. 鈥淲e are concerned about lumber as well.鈥�

New tariffs have been imposed on importation of Canadian softwood lumber. Because Canada provides nearly a third of the U.S. lumber supply, the new tariffs are expected to exacerbate already tight supply lines.

鈥淲e would not be at all surprised 鈥� and we in fact anticipate 鈥� that raw materials will be impacted,鈥� said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the national chapter of the Associated General Contractors聽of America. 鈥淲e would likely see significant shortages of gypsum. We are cautious as to what we are expecting.鈥�

The timing of possible material shortages is hard to predict. While projects under construction appear to be relatively safe, those in the works in 2018 will likely be affected most. The timing of reconstruction will largely be determined by when insurance claims are paid.

One thing that is certain is the devastation that the storms and fires left behind. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are estimated to have caused $290 billion worth of damage. More than 8,400 structures, mostly homes, burned in Northern California.

鈥淵ou just think about it, there is a need in Northern California, there is a need in Houston, there is a need in Florida, there is a need in Puerto Rico,鈥� Danielson said. 鈥淲hen you lose that many structures, the majority of those being homes, there is going to be a heavy load put on production of Sheetrock, insulation, roofing materials.鈥�

Fires in California delayed construction of a retirement home by at least three weeks, according to Ankrom Moisan Architects senior associate Chris Ebert. Electrical work, utility upgrades and material shipments were affected.

鈥淒uring the fires, a lot of the guys were under evacuation,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he bigger picture was that PG&E was pulled off of supporting construction projects. Any sort of work went on indefinite hold. There are still a few problems on the gas side and the phone company is not totally back engaged.鈥�

Some factors may mitigate the disasters’ impact. The industry has learned from previous disasters such as Superstorm Sandy (2012) and Hurricane Katrina (2005). Many parts of the country are experiencing a building boom, so production of materials had ramped up even before the recent disasters.

鈥淟ogistics have all improved,鈥� Simonson said. 鈥淐ontractors know better where the supplies are and they are able to find out where they can get them faster. The whole shipping chain is much better than it used to be.鈥�

One complication that wasn’t present the previous time the country suffered a series of storms is a crimp in the supply of steel. While steel prices were already increasing due to tightening import rules and a boom in Chinese demand, a scandal involving Kobe Steel, Japan’s third-largest steel manufacturer, threatens to tighten supply even more.

鈥淪teel is a more global commodity,鈥� Simonson said. 鈥淲hat happens in California is less important that macroeconomic trends in China.鈥�

While the disaster recovery impact to this point has been minimal, architects and contractors are bracing for what is to come.

鈥淚 am cautious as to what I am expecting,鈥� Simonson said. 鈥淚 would say to be ready for significant impact on gypsum. There is no panic. There will be shortages and delays. It will have less impact than in the past, but it will have an impact.鈥�