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After a first draft of rezoning rules meant to expand Portland’s housing stock was criticized by the Planning and Sustainability Commission for not going far enough, an updated proposal goes further.

The revised draft of the Residential Infill Project has emerged. It doubles down on city officials’ drive to allow more so-called 鈥渕iddle housing鈥� 鈥� duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes and accessory dwelling units (ADUs) 鈥� throughout the city.

If approved by the commission and City Council, it would put Portland at the forefront of efforts by urban planners to make room for growing populations in U.S. cities. Minneapolis led the way in December when it decided to allow duplexes and triplexes throughout the city, effectively ending single-family zoning.

Portland’s proposed rules would allow fourplexes, and not just on corner lots but on any properties within areas zoned for them. The changes came at the urging of the Planning and Sustainability Commission.

The Residential Infill Project zoning would allow a 2,500-square-foot house, a 3,000-square-foot duplex, or a 3,500-square-foot-triplex or fourplex on a 5,000-square-foot lot. In many neighborhoods, a lot could have a house and two ADUs.

Portland is working to accommodate an expected 123,000 new households in the city by 2035. At the same time, the Oregon Legislature is considering House Bill 2001, which would fundamentally change single-family zoning in cities throughout the state, requiring municipalities to allow middle housing.

In gauging the likely effects of the Residential Infill Project on rents, demolitions and displacement of existing low-income residents, officials are also weighing the cost of doing nothing 鈥� what planners call a baseline scenario.

Tyler Bump, senior economic planner with the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, laid out the risks of doing nothing and potential displacement of low-income renters during a Planning and Sustainability Commission meeting earlier this week.

鈥淭here seems to be a relatively high cost of doing nothing in terms of impact to displacement across the city right now,鈥� Bump said.

Bump showed the Planning and Sustainability Commission maps of mathematical displacement models across the city. The models show about a 20 percent reduction in displacement.

鈥淭he proposal broadly decreases displacement risk across most areas of Portland,鈥� Bump told the commission.

That’s not good enough for the populations in East Portland, where the Residential Infill Project is projected to accelerate displacement, Commissioner Andre Baugh said.

鈥淚 really worry that we’re being asked to displace certain populations faster than others for the benefit of this greater good, and the greater good of more units is not benefitting everybody equally,鈥� he said.

Baugh said he would not support further displacement of Portland’s African-American neighborhoods.

鈥淵ou’re asking me, as an African-American, to approve displacing African-Americans that can’t come back,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 just can’t approve that.鈥�

City officials estimate the Residential Infill Project would lead to the creation of 1,700 additional housing units in 20 years’ time. That works out to about 85 units per year. The city’s analysis suggests this would result in a slight reduction in rental rates citywide and slightly fewer demolitions of existing properties.

鈥淭here’s a limit to how much just changes in zoning can stimulate development,鈥� said Morgan Tracy, project manager for the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability.

Tracy mentioned Gateway as an area with generous zoning but little construction.

鈥淵ou have to be cognizant of what the market will be, and the gap between demand and units,鈥� he said. 鈥淶oning by itself won’t dictate development.鈥�

Middle housing in Portland has been the domain of small-scale developers, while major developers focus on large single-family homes in the suburbs or multistory multifamily projects.

A study of up-zoning in Chicago drew some attention when it found that denser zoning led to no additional construction, but boosted land prices.

BPS Interim Director Joe Zehnder cautioned against reading too much into the Chicago study, saying political resistance has played a role in blocking construction there.

鈥淚n Chicago, each of the 50 different wards have separate aldermen and they call all of the zoning,鈥� Zehnder said. 鈥淪o the way the zoning happens is very political and related to power.鈥�

Yonah Freemark, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology researcher who conducted the study published in Urban Affairs Review, cautioned against drawing direct conclusions.

鈥淚t’s quite possible that other cities that make similar changes see dramatically different effects,鈥� he wrote in an email message. 鈥淚t is also worth pointing out that every zoning change is different.鈥�

Yet he suggested cities watch for increased land prices and displacement after up-zoning.

鈥淚f up-zoning increases value when it occurs, but construction takes a while to get going, what happens in the meantime?鈥� Freemark stated. 鈥淢y study suggests that one effect might be increased costs and reduced affordability. Cities should be thinking through how they approach this issue, because it might mean displacement for some.鈥�

The Residential Infill Project has drawn some criticism from residents who want to preserve the character of their single-family neighborhoods. But Kimberlee Stafford, a Tonkon Torp partner, said fears of dramatic changes are overblown.

鈥淚 don’t think 鈥� rampant demolitions or drastic changes in neighborhoods are at all what we’re going to see,鈥� she said.