91视频

A combination of low supply and high prices for housing in the Portland-metro area is the foremost economic problem facing policy makers, an economist said Wednesday.

Prices in the Portland area are about five times median household income, putting housing out of reach of many residents and burdening low-income renters, said John Tapogna, president of ECONorthwest, a Portland-based economic consulting firm.

About 34 percent of households in the Portland-metro area are considered 鈥渃ost-burdened,鈥� spending at least 30 percent of their income on housing, Tapogna said. The problem is worst among renters, with 49 percent cost-burdened, he added.

鈥淭hat’s unworkable,鈥� he said.

Tapogna spoke at the Sentinel Hotel to give his annual report on the value of jobs for the Portland Business Alliance.

Mike Wilkerson, an ECONorthwest project manager, said he expects housing construction, which already lags demand, to slow in 2020 and 2021 as the market continues to react to rising construction costs, higher interest rates and policy interventions such as Portland’s inclusionary housing program.

Tapogna said inclusionary housing was 鈥渨ell-intentioned鈥� but 鈥渘eeds to be reconsidered.鈥�

When an audience member asked what trade-offs the business community needs to make to encourage housing, Tapogna suggested it’s up to residents to welcome more housing into their neighborhoods.

鈥淭he trade-off is going to be the parking spot in front of your house,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t’s going to be how many neighbors you have in your leafy, single-family neighborhood.鈥�

There are several legislative proposals in the Oregon Capitol and at Portland City Hall that seek to address the housing crisis. House Bill 2001 and Portland’s Residential Infill Project would change traditional single-family zoning to encourage 鈥渕iddle housing鈥� 鈥� duplexes, accessory dwelling units and the like. Other proposals would cap rent increases and place restrictions on evictions without cause.

Cost-burdened renters are significant contributors to the Portland region’s short-term homeless population, Tapogna said.

鈥淲hat is driving Portland’s homelessness crisis is the high cost of housing,鈥� he said.

The housing troubles come amid a historic economic expansion. In July, barring a recession, the expansion will officially become the longest since World War II. Employment data from January showed 304,000 net new jobs in the U.S. despite a prolonged government shutdown.

In Oregon, construction employment led the way, growing 7 percent in the 12 months ending in November.

The Portland-metro area has added high-wage jobs, improving to 16th in median income among American cities.

鈥淭hese are good numbers,鈥� Tapogna said.

Venture capital investment in Portland still trails such investment in comparable cities such as Seattle, Austin and Salt Lake City, Tapogna said.

鈥淭his is not a huge venture capital town,鈥� he said.

ECONorthwest’s report also looked at East Multnomah County. The portion of the county east of Interstate 205 suffers from commuting churn: 69 percent of residents work outside of the area, while 67 percent of East Multnomah County workers live elsewhere. That creates a strain on workers who log long commute times and expensive child care bills, Tapogna said.