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In June 2009, work had recently halted at Park Avenue West, leaving a sizable excavated hole in downtown Portland. Stacy and Witbeck was about to start the first phase of the Portland Streetcar Loop Project. Mayor Sam Adams was floating Lents Park as a site for a baseball stadium to host the Triple-A Portland Beavers. The Portland Development Commission was proposing the ambitious Oregon Sustainability Center near Portland State University.

Public-sector work was about the only thing going. The economy was in a shambles. Oregon had a 12.2 percent unemployment rate, the second-highest in the nation (most recently, in April, the rate stood at 4.3 percent).

Contractors were desperate for work 鈥� a simple $2.5 million armory remodel that month attracted a dozen bidders. Local government agencies were pleasantly surprised by low bids coming in below their estimates.

This month marks 10 years of economic expansion, soon to become the longest such period in American history. In that time, Portland has gained more than 70,000 residents, with robust 12 percent population growth, and many more in the surrounding metro area. Thousands of apartments have been built, and millions of square feet of new office space delivered to the market.

So, what now?

Predicting the timing of an economic downturn or recession is notoriously difficult. Something like the local real estate market is affected by both macroeconomic conditions such as growth and interest rates, and local phenomena like Portland’s inclusionary housing and rent-control policies.

Broadly, the local economy is in good shape, said Tyler Bump, a project director for ECONorthwest.

鈥淏oth population and job growth are still on the positive and still growing, but less so than in previous years,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o that baseline is sort of filtering through the real estate market. Things are happening, just at slower rates than what they have before.鈥�

Eventually, lower population growth rates will impact multifamily development, while slower employment growth may take some air out of the office market, Bump said.

Nationally, economists are watching for an inversion in the yield curve, a measure of Treasury bonds that has a strong record of predicting recessions. On Wednesday, 51 basis points separated 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds.

Office construction remains robust despite more than 1 million square feet being delivered in 2018.

鈥淵es, we’ve built a lot for Portland standards, but at the same time, it feels very healthy,鈥� said Tim Harrison, research manager at Jones Lang LaSalle‘s Portland office.

He added, 鈥淭he market sentiment we’re seeing is more upbeat than we were seeing at this time last year.鈥�

Office sales have been brisk this year, with Montgomery Park selling for $255 million, Field Office for $118 million and Park Square for $96.5 million. Total sales volume through May reached $884 million, far greater than in any similar period since the Great Recession, according to JLL.

The Central Eastside Industrial District is a bright spot. What began as small-scale redevelopments of warehouses into office space has evolved into major new ground-up Class-A office projects such as 5 MLK, District Office and 7 SE Stark.

鈥淭he job growth in the Central Eastside is still booming,鈥� Bump said.

Industrial and logistics space is also in high demand, as Amazon and other e-commerce distributors snap up facilities close to population centers.

Multifamily development in Portland has slowed dramatically, a drop-off that developers blame on inclusionary housing, which requires developers of projects of 20 units or more to provide affordable housing units or pay into a fund. Developers have responded in large part by proposing neighborhood-scale projects of fewer than 20 units, or full-block buildings with more than 100 units, exemplified by a trio of projects from Mill Creek Residential Trust.

Apartment brokers are also noticing an ominous drop in multifamily sales.

Noel Johnson, a principal at Cairn Pacific, is at work on a concept for three- and four-story for-sale row houses and a series of 18-unit apartment buildings in Northwest Portland, all built with cross-laminated timber and aimed at creating a walkable, urban neighborhood.

He said there’s little to be gained by reading economic tea leaves.

鈥淓veryone’s just guessing,鈥� he said.

Johnson said he learned long ago to focus on his own projects.

鈥淚’m just focused on a micro level, on a neighborhood level, trying to create a product that is needed, that resonates,鈥� he said. 鈥淚f your product is really truly answering what people want, or what people need, then that project is successful regardless of economic winds.鈥�

The Waterfront Vancouver is one of the most notable large-scale developments to emerge since the recession. Barry Cain, president of Gramor Development, and his business partners closed on the retired paper mill property on the Columbia River in February 2008, a few months before Lehman Brothers’ collapse marked a national economic reckoning.

鈥淚t’s always surprising when the market goes down like that,鈥� Cain said. 鈥淚t doesn’t feel like it has anything to do with what you’re doing.鈥�

The Waterfront Vancouver should do well in any economy, he added.

鈥淚 suppose we’re a little more conservative in how we go forward,鈥� he said. 鈥淚 think we’re in a good place. There’ll probably be a bit of a downturn at some point, but every part in the country doesn’t feel a downturn the same way. This should be a good place to be regardless.鈥�

The decade-long economic boom has underwritten countless individual success stories. Ten years ago, Colleen Murphy, then an interior design principal with Myhre Group Architects, was featured in a 91视频 article about looking for projects in a lean economy. Now, she’s the CEO of Fluent Design, which she founded in 2012. Murphy has four employees and is looking to hire more.

鈥淲e’ve got a lot of potential projects out there,鈥� she said. 鈥淲e definitely feel like we can handle one if not two more employees, and that’ll free me up to chase more work.鈥�