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IEA: Electricity demand surging faster than energy production

By: Alexa St. John
The Associated Press
//November 13, 2025//

In August, workers attach switches and connectors to solar panels at a ReNew manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India. (Manish Swarup/AP file)

IEA: Electricity demand surging faster than energy production

Alexa St. John
The Associated Press
//November 13, 2025//

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At a glance:
  • IEA projects will rise faster than total energy growth
  • Solar and renewables expected to dominate global energy expansion
  • Coal and oil demand could peak by 2030, with natural gas supply increasing
  • Global leaders urged to diversify energy sources and strengthen grids

Electricity demand will rise聽much faster than overall energy growth in the coming decades, underscoring the need for diversified energy sources, according to an analysis released Wednesday.

The report by the 蝉补颈诲听, led by , will grow faster than any other major source in the next few years. One scenario the agency anticipates is coal and oil demand peaking globally by the end of this decade 鈥 but the group also said global demand could continue growing until 2050. The report noted that many natural gas projects were approved in 2025, due to changes in U.S. policy, indicating worldwide supply will rise even as questions remain about how it will be used. Meanwhile, global聽nuclear power capacity聽is set to increase by at least a third by 2035 after being stagnant for years.

The release of the annual World Energy Outlook coincided with聽U.N. negotiations聽in Brazil, where global leaders this week are calling for ways to curb .

The IEA says building greater resilience in energy systems is especially important as data centers, heating and cooling, electrification and more drive energy demand. Investment in聽data centers聽is expected to reach $580 billion this year, exceeding investment in the oil supply, according to the report.

Growing economies including India and nations in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, will 鈥渋ncreasingly shape energy market dynamics in the years,鈥 the IEA said, noting their potential for solar power.

China, meanwhile, has accounted for half the global growth in demand for oil and gas, and more than half for electricity, since 2010.

鈥淚n a break from the trend of the past decade, the increase in electricity consumption is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies,鈥 IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated in a release. Electricity use is also rising in advanced economies, according to Birol.

Nations are grappling with meeting demand while preparing for the聽risks brought on by climate change. The IEA says the world is falling short on universal energy access and climate change goals. Around 730 million people still live without electricity, according to the IEA, and despite progress, nearly one-quarter of the global population still relies on inefficient cooking methods that hurt their health or the environment.聽2024 was also the hottest year on record.

Nations should diversify their energy sources and cooperate to expand supply chains for critical minerals used to make things like batteries for electric vehicles and components for solar and wind power generation, the IEA said. This also includes making quick聽improvements to the grid, energy storage and broader infrastructure.

鈥淲hen we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once,鈥 Birol said. 鈥淲ith energy security front and (center) for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals 鈥 on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change.鈥

The IEA brought back an approach to this year’s outlook using what it calls current policies. It used this approach in 2019 to weigh different possible global energy outcomes, before better aligning with clean plans. This year the agency’s outlook includes the possibility of essentially regressing on the phase-out of .

In a conference call Wednesday, Birol said: 鈥淲e will still use oil. We will still use gas. But the growth of electricity demand is spectacular.鈥

He noted the role transportation plays in accounting for 45 percent of global oil consumption, for example. 鈥淗ow the electrification of the transportation takes place, especially in countries beyond China and Europe, will determine the shape of the oil demand and growth.鈥

Wednesday’s edition of the yearly report is the first released since the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term. Trump’s administration has for a second time聽opted out of the Paris agreement, rolled back聽dozens of climate regulations, slashed federal聽support for renewable energies such as wind and solar power聽and is reversing the聽鈥渆ndangerment finding鈥 that sits at the core of U.S. climate policy.

Trump has pledged his support instead to the fossil fuel industry,聽investing in coal聽and loosening restrictions on pollution.

But energy analysts said the shift to clean power is happening regardless of climate policy around the world.

鈥淭he evidence on the ground is overwhelming,鈥 said Dave Jones, chief analyst at global energy think tank Ember. 鈥淓V sales are taking off in many emerging countries, solar is permeating even through the Middle East. Renewables and electrification will dominate the future.鈥

Maria Pastukhova, energy transition program lead at climate change think tank E3G, said the report makes 鈥渢he choices for the global energy system and the global economy unambiguous.鈥

Others, however, were critical of how the outlook addressed oil and gas. Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, said the outlook does not fully capture the momentum in renewables, and that it should have emphasized the trajectory for renewable energy is accelerating, driven by the decreasing cost of the technologies, strong policy support and the move toward electrification.

鈥淲e’re accelerating,鈥 he added. 鈥淵ou can see it all around the world and we can see it in our numbers for last year, but also in our numbers for the first half of this year. It looks very, very exciting, both for wind and for solar, in fact, and for next year, even more so.鈥

The IEA addressed some of the criticism in the call Wednesday. It said that it sees differences economically, politically and regarding efforts across the globe, and that its analysis tries to account for those differences.

鈥淚n a nutshell, the IEA is backsliding,鈥 said Stephan Singer, global energy senior adviser at CAN International, a global network of environmental organizations. 鈥淎s a global think tank, the IEA has largely failed to represent where most countries in the (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and the developing world are, as they’re supporting net zero emissions with 98 percent CO2 emissions reductions by mid-century.鈥

Editor’s note: Associated Press reporters Jennifer McDermott in Providence, Rhode Island, and Sibi Arasu in Bengaluru contributed to this report.



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