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After a long decline, the number of Oregon construction jobs held steady from April to May and increased from May to June. That generated hope for an industry that has been losing jobs since 2007.

However, it’s not a recovery, economists and employers say, but rather a hiccup, a mirage.

鈥淲e’re going to do a lot of bumping around the bottom for a while,鈥� said Amy Vander Vliet, a regional economist in the Portland-metro area.

Last week’s federal employment numbers brought good news for nearly every industry except construction, while Oregon numbers showed the opposite: Most industries continue to lose jobs except construction.

The state’s official economic forecast shows construction employment, at about 75,000 people today, dropping through the first few months of 2011, when fewer than 69,000 will remain. 鈥淭here are probably 6,000 or more jobs to be lost in construction before it bottoms out,鈥� state employment economist Art Ayre said.

Construction won’t come back until banks lend more money for projects, said Jon Carder, president of Melvin Mark Brokerage Co. 鈥淲e’ve been stalled since late last year in the lending market,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here are beginning to be some signs of improvement, but they’re not robust by any means.鈥�

Life insurance companies, in particular, have started to invest more in the commercial real estate market as corporate bond rates have fallen, Carder said. But banks that lent 75 percent of a project’s value two years ago now lend only 55 to 65 percent, so borrowers now must put up nearly twice as much equity.

Public sector projects have also struggled, as agencies have cut budgets and put capital construction on hold.

鈥淚 don’t think we’ll come out of this recession at the same place we started,鈥� said Sarah Hacker, marketing director with THA Architects. She added that when agencies can afford projects again, they’ll likely be remodels and no-frills new buildings.

鈥淚t’s going to be hard to re-absorb all the layoffs,鈥� Hacker said. 鈥淏ut the strong firms will survive 鈥� a lot of them have been through recessions before.鈥�

That’s true in construction as well as in architecture, said Bart Eberwein, a vice president at Hoffman Construction. Companies that have been around more than a few years know how to survive in a turbulent industry, he said.

鈥淐onstruction companies are pretty scalable relative to some other industries,鈥� Eberwein said. 鈥淲e are used to the boom-bust cycle. We don’t sell commodities like pencils or cars that people always need.鈥�

Even if construction jobs do return by 2011, that’s a long time for even experienced companies to hold on, said Andrew Beyer, a vice president of Walsh Construction Co. 鈥淭he competition for work has gotten progressively fiercer,鈥� he said. 鈥淧eople have been working off their backlogs over the course of the last year. Some people don’t even have backlogs. They’re working day to day, week to week, month to month.鈥�

As contractors such as Hoffman hire fewer subcontractors for projects, the subcontractors hire fewer workers. While union halls fill up with people seeking work, younger workers remain optimistic that they’ll have jobs, said Ron Umali, assistant training director at the NECA-IBEW Electrical Training Center.

鈥淭he apprentices are pretty motivated to finish their programs,鈥� Umali said. 鈥淭hey know it’s a good career, and this downturn in the economy is temporary. Right from the start, we informed people that there would be times that they’re unemployed.鈥�

The general economy probably will rebound before the construction economy, Vander Vliet said. 鈥淏ut when it does grow, it will grow faster,鈥� she said.

鈥淚t outperforms all other industries both going up and going down.鈥�

Even if that’s true, industry officials don’t expect 2011 to look just like 2007. Some of the changes made during lean times will stick around, Eberwein said.

Property owners have sought energy-efficient buildings to save money, he said, and that trend will probably continue even in good times.

鈥淭he emphasis on cost, the emphasis on value, the emphasis on energy conservation and lack of waste throughout the construction process was percolating as the recession hit, and has been (intensified) by that,鈥� Eberwein said. 鈥淧eople are really looking at how to cut all waste out of the process.鈥�