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When Bob Scanlan, principal of financial firm Scanlan Kemper Bard, uses roller coasters as an analogy for the financial lending industry, it’s enough to make you never want to ride one again.

“I would argue … financial issues in commercial real estate are like if you’re at an amusement park, and you’re on a roller coaster that’s right at the top before it’s starting down,” Scanlan said. “That’s the standpoint of the degree of difficulty. The toxicity within the commercial real estate world is about to go into absolute freefall.”

Indeed, Scanlan said, the next 12 months will be worse than anything the area has ever seen. What that means for new construction projects is they will have to be at least 65 percent pre-leased in order to find money to move forward.

But even a project that’s 65 percent pre-leased is far from a sure thing. Look at Park Avenue West, Scanlan said; that was 65 percent pre-leased and it’s still a hole in the ground.

What’s happening, Scanlan said, is that lenders are writing off certain industries as being less stable than others. These industries don’t add much to the value of the pre-lease activity. They include law firms (such as law firm Stoel Rives, Park Avenue West’s anchor tenant), restaurants, construction companies and movie theaters.

If one of these is your anchor, you might not have much luck, Scanlan said.

Casey Davidson, a director at the Portland office of Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, agreed that there were certain types of industries that create red flags. Still, he thinks Stoel Rives has a good reputation and would make a good building tenant. He said lenders want a building’s potential tenants to provide way more financial information than in the past.

“Right now, though, there are very few investment grade businesses,” he said.

So the scary ride continues for building developers.