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For much of this year, considerable energy, debate and political capital have been expended developing, discussing and then passing the federal stimulus package, also known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

In previous columns, I鈥檝e expressed my concern about this effort, all the while hoping for success and working with government officials to make it succeed.

In just 18 short months, the U.S. government has spent more than $1.5 trillion (equal to half an annual federal budget) in additional funds to shore up banks and other financial institutions; salvage or purchase automakers; provide additional resources to Medicare, unemployment and state governments; and to pay for infrastructure projects 鈥� both transportation and non-transportation. Using the best Keynesian arguments, it was said that government had to spend to counteract the lack of private investment. All this, the theory went, was critical in keeping Americans at work and America competitive.

Unfortunately, as we now know, things haven鈥檛 quite worked out the way many hoped.

In January, the national unemployment rate was 7.6 percent. By the end of September, that number was up to 9.8 percent. In Oregon, the unemployment rate grew from 9 percent in January to 12.2 percent by the end of August 鈥� before 鈥渋mproving鈥� to 11.5 percent. While that seems like an improvement, Oregon鈥檚 jobless rate had nearly doubled from a year before, and today represents more than 100,000 additional Oregonians out of work.

What did this trend mean for construction in Oregon?

Construction employment in Oregon peaked at nearly 110,000 workers in December 2007. Since that time 鈥� even including the normal seasonal fluctuations construction workers usually face 鈥� unemployment in construction today has sunk to 75,000.

And it鈥檚 still dropping.

Another way to measure economic performance in construction is to look at construction 鈥渧olumes.鈥�

Volumes are another word for gross revenues. Having just returned from visits with AGC members around the state, we heard the same refrain over and over again: volumes are off, in numbers not seen since the early 1980s. In the Portland area, those still in business have seen their volumes drop by between 20 and 30 percent. In Central Oregon, volumes in commercial construction are down by as much as 50 percent, and it鈥檚 worse in housing. And Jackson and Klamath counties are down by a nearly incomprehensible 70 percent or more.

As we look at the economic wreckage caused by this recession, it is important to remember what makes up Oregon鈥檚 economy.

Although some politicians and interest groups would have you think differently, Oregon鈥檚 business community is made up primarily of small businesses.

For AGC, that translates into nearly 87 percent of our nearly 1,100 members being small businesses that employ 10 people or fewer. And yet the average wage in these businesses is more than $46,000 per year, more than meeting the definition of a 鈥渓iving wage.鈥�

What will it take to restore the economy and these businesses?

Our members 鈥� and others in business around the state 鈥� tell us that it鈥檚 time to get private investment moving again. Since the banking and financial industry meltdown in September 2008, lenders have become extremely averse to risk. While they will tell developers and builders that 鈥渢here is plenty of money to lend,鈥� the fact is that pressure from elected officials, regulators, and the media 鈥� plus their own skittishness after the financial collapse 鈥� have made these lenders reluctant to make credit available.

While interest rates remain low, today鈥檚 equity requirements make loans a practical impossibility. Just 18 short months ago, a developer could get funding for projects for just 10 percent down. Today, loans require as much as 50 percent equity, as well as substantial commitments of personal assets. That鈥檚 bad for small businesses. But imagine trying to finance a $250 million hospital project with terms like that.

We have seen what public-sector-only stimulus looks like, and we are seeing its less-than-desired results. For real stimulus and for real recovery, the entire economy needs a boost. Instead of demonizing 鈥渂ig business鈥� and 鈥渆vil bankers,鈥� Congress and the Obama administration should look at putting in place rational, thoughtful policies that get capital moving to the private sector again.

Then, and only then, will we see the kind of stimulus and the kind of recovery we need to get Oregonians back to work in construction and other industries.

Mike Salsgiver is the executive director of the Oregon-Columbia chapter of Associated General Contractors of America. Contact him at 503-682-3363 or [email protected].