Nick Bjork//September 27, 2011//
The nation’s supply of residential shadow inventory – distressed homes that haven’t hit the market but inevitably will – continued its slow decline in July.
According to data released today by the Santa Ana, Calif.-based research firm CoreLogic, the nation’s shadow inventory at the end of July was 1.6 million units, representing a five-month supply of properties. This is down from 1.9 million units – a six-month supply – a year ago, and follows a decline from April of this year when shadow inventory stood at 1.7 million units.
“The steady improvement in the shadow inventory is a positive development for the housing market,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a statement accompanying the data. “However, continued price declines, high levels of negative equity and a sluggish labor market will keep the shadow supply elevated for an extended period of time.”
CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on the multiple listing services that are either more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure, or real estate owned by lenders. The measurement shows the number of properties that aren’t listed on the official metrics of unsold inventory but eventually will be.
Of the 1.6 million properties currently in the shadow inventory, 770,000 units are more than 90 days delinquent, 430,000 are in some stage of foreclosure and 390,000 are already owned by the lenders.
At the end of July the shadow inventory was 22 percent lower than the peak at January 2010 when the shadow inventory was at 2.2 million units, representing an 8.4-months supply. The aggregated current mortgage debt outstanding of the current supply of shadow inventory is at $336 billion, down 18 percent from $411 billion a year ago.
The total shadow inventory combined with the visible inventory was 5.4 million at the end of July, down from 6.1 million units a year ago. The shadow inventory accounts for 29 percent of the combined total.