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State economist vaguely optimistic in quarterly report

By: Tom Henderson//November 27, 2012//

State economist vaguely optimistic in quarterly report

Tom Henderson//November 27, 2012//

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As the economy staggers back to its feet, state economist Mark McMullen told members of the Oregon Legislature last week that good news is coming from the homebuilding industry.

鈥淭he housing recovery is here to help drive economic growth,鈥 he said in his quarterly Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast. 鈥淓ven so, housing-related production is just now beginning to improve from its recessionary lows and has a long way to go before the level of production approaches anything considered a normal year for housing.鈥

Ryan Bloedel, owner of , confirmed the dark lining in McMullen鈥檚 silver cloud. 鈥淗ere in Salem, we鈥檙e not seeing the same kind of recovery that they鈥檙e seeing in Portland and Bend. It鈥檚 not hugely significant at this point.鈥

Economic growth in Oregon has averaged just over 2 percent in recent months, said McMullen, a representative of the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, the nation as a whole has added approximately 150,000 jobs per month so far in 2012.

鈥淭he slowdown seen in recent months can largely be attributed to the global manufacturing cycle beginning to wane,鈥 he said.

Employment in Oregon continues to increase at a slow, subdued pace in 2012.

鈥淎fter a strong start to the year, with employment increasing nearly 3 percent on an annual basis in the first quarter, employment gains have slowed the past two quarters in Oregon,鈥 McMullen said.

鈥淥regon鈥檚 economic expansion persists, but remains stuck in a low gear,鈥 he added. 鈥淕rowth continues to come in fits and starts 鈥 a strong quarter or two followed by a weak quarter or two 鈥 with the underlying trend remaining slow and steady.鈥

Wage growth has been similarly soft, according to McMullen.

鈥淎verage wages are growing at a 1.5 percent rate among production and non-supervisory employees, and just under 2 percent for all employees overall,鈥 he said. 鈥淚n good years, like the late 1990s or even mid-2000s, wage growth reached 4 percent per year.

鈥淕iven such weak growth, consumers 鈥 like the economy as a whole 鈥 remain vulnerable to shocks,鈥 he added. 鈥淓ncouragingly, inflation remains in check for now.鈥

Senate President Peter Courtney, D-Salem, told lawmakers he is optimistic.

鈥淲e continue to see growth in our economy and our forecasts continue to be in the black; the signs are positive,鈥 he said.鈥漈he housing market continues to recover. The unemployment rate is coming down.鈥



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