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William Shakespeare had some advice for building and real estate professionals who gathered Wednesday for the annual housing forecast sponsored by the .

鈥淭o climb steep hills requires slow pace at first,鈥� former state economist Tom Potiowsky quoted from Act I, Scene I of 鈥淗enry VIII.鈥�

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鈥淲e’re right to the script on this,鈥� he added. 鈥淢y message to you today is patience.鈥�

Cautious optimism was the general theme of the breakfast meeting at the Oregon Convention Center. Cautious as they may have been, however, a lot of people were smiling at overall positive news about the homebuilding industry.

鈥淲e have survived the second most difficult housing downturn in the history of our country,鈥� said Jim Boyer, the director of yard operations for . 鈥淟ast year, I said we could be at the bottom.鈥�

Everyone in the homebuilding industry knows how the drama unfolded, said Robert Denk, the assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis for the . Homebuilders built too much too quickly, and banks offered home loans to people who really couldn’t afford them. By 2006, the sky was black with chickens coming home to roost.

鈥淎fter that, things really collapsed,鈥� Denk said. 鈥淚f this has been our sin, this has been our punishment. I think we’ve all learned our lesson.鈥�

Nationally, rock bottom was when homebuilding was down to 27 percent of its pre-recession levels. Now it’s inched its way back to about 41 percent, Denk said.

鈥淲e’ve seen some improvement on the national level,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t’s encouraging, but we still have a long way to go. Every state has bottomed out and moved out of that previous trough.鈥�

Denk said the average price of a home nationally is between $175,000 and $200,000. The average income is $50,000 a year among homeowners.

鈥淭he housing prices have aligned with income,鈥� he said.

Potiowsky said aligning supply with demand is critical for economic recovery.

鈥淲e’re in a situation where we need to get that effective demand in line with the effective supply,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here’s demand, but you have to have a credit rating akin to God’s to get a mortgage.鈥�

Expect to see the homebuilding industry hold steady at 41 percent of its pre-recession levels through the rest of 2012 and early 2013, Denk said. It should be up to 55 percent by the end of 2013 and into the 70s by the end of 2014, he added.

鈥淎ll the indicators are up in recent months,鈥� he said.

Potiowsky, who was the state economist from 1999 to 2006 and 2008 to 2011 before becoming the director of the Northwest Economic Research Center at Portland State University, said industry professionals should remember the role played by the federal government. Congress is deadlocked over taxes and spending, he noted.

鈥淭he Federal Reserve is the only game in town for driving the recovery,鈥� he said.

Potiowsky specifically cited the Fed’s policy of quantitative easing wherein it buys financial assets from commercial banks and other private institutions with newly created money.

This facilitates the recovery of the homebuilding industry, said Potiowsky 鈥� at least in the short run. However, he said, the recovery will not come overnight.

鈥淒on’t expect a snap of the rubber band,鈥� he added. However, 鈥渕ost forecasters would not see a recession on the horizon.鈥�

Things are so good that Ken Perry, president of training company , said he almost dusted off his bullish 2003 speech about the growth in homebuilding.

鈥淭he difference is now we have standards,鈥� he said.

Controls are in place to keep the industry from becoming giddy and flying too close to the sun, he said. In fact, he added, almost too many controls exist for home loans.

鈥淭here’s an attitude among some people that the way to stop bad lending is to outlaw lending,鈥� Perry said.

That’s not stopping people from buying homes, he said.

鈥淗ouses are selling like crazy,鈥� Perry said. 鈥淧eople are getting off their parents’ couch.鈥�

This is wonderful news for everyone in the business of building and selling homes, he said.

鈥淲e are so happy not to be where we were,鈥� Perry said. 鈥淲e are in for a cool ride.鈥�