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Oregon’s economy and construction contractors could use some couples therapy. I hate to be dramatic because the relationship is getting a lot better. But let’s face it: There are some serious trust issues.

It’s been well documented that the relationship between the economy and the construction industry was doing well through August 2007. According to the Oregon Employment Department, construction employment peaked at 105,400 that month.

Then things went south – fast.

By June 2010, construction employment hit its lowest level since 1995, bottoming out at 67,200 seasonally adjusted jobs. Nearly four out of 10 people in the industry were out of work. Ouch.

From there, the construction sector bounced along, expanding slightly and contracting – climbing above 70,000 jobs only once prior to January 2013.

That’s when it looked like the relationship might be back on track. Things seemed to warm back up as the industry added jobs in each of the next five months. Both sides were starting to feel good about where things were heading.

Then, bam! The industry shed jobs again in both June and July.

August through November saw more gains, but December brought additional losses. The economy turned a cold shoulder and construction shed four hundred jobs again.

“Two steps forward then one step back” became the local theme of 2013.

National indicators painted a similar picture. Despite job growth in most of 2013, national construction employment decreased by 16,000 jobs in December, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Nonresidential construction accounted for 14,100 of those losses.

With all the mixed messages coming from the unstable employment numbers, is there any wonder that construction feels insecure?

What gives?

Next month, the Associated Builders and Contractors will release its Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2013. CBI is a forward-looking national economic indicator that reflects the amount of work that will be performed by commercial and industrial contractors in the months ahead. The report for the third quarter of 2013 included some interesting insights and possible reasons we aren’t moving forward as quickly as we hoped.

“For the past year, businesses and consumers grappled with higher tax rates, rising interest rates, a federal shutdown, and the uncertainties associated with health care reform, sequestration and debt default,” stated Anirban Basu, chief economist for ABC. “In October, the International Monetary Fund downgraded the 2013 U.S. growth forecast from 1.7 percent to 1.6 percent.

“As if headwinds emerging from the federal government were not enough, the uncertain resolution of Detroit’s bankruptcy has induced more cautious behavior among certain large and similarly situated American cities, which continues to impact the outlook for U.S. infrastructure investment.”

That’s a lot of issues to work through.

Yet we all remain optimistic that the relationship is on the mend. Earlier this month, Basu looked at the situation this way: “It is discouraging to observe losses in momentum in both the broader economy and in nonresidential construction; however, construction-specific and economy-wide employment data are likely to improve in the months ahead.

“Even slow growth leads to construction opportunities,” Basu noted. “Ongoing recovery steadily produces lower vacancy rates, higher rents and more comfortable lenders. However, growth also results in higher interest rates, and ABC believes this factor will begin to serve as a more meaningful speed governor in late 2014 or in 2015.”

What are we to do to make this relationship work? We have to stay together. It’s not like divorce is an option. Therapy is all we have.

Laurie Kendall is president of the Associated Builders and Contractors’ Pacific Northwest chapter. Contact her at 503-598-0620 or at [email protected].