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The amazing run of great weather this winter here in the Northwest has some of us thinking again about one of the potential major implications of climate change 鈥� an increasing influx of 鈥渃limate refugees鈥� from areas where the long-range impacts are not so benign. The most likely source of those refugees would probably be the desert southwest, where predictions are for dramatically increasing temperatures and decreasing water supplies. But as we watch the incredible scenes of horrible weather from back east and the Midwest you have to wonder if those people are making plans to head west sooner rather than later.

As planners, we have to pay attention to the best predictions about the future in order to anticipate trends in population growth (or decline), and their implications. Since Oregon has a robust set of planning laws, every city and county in the state has an obligation to plan for a 20-year time horizon, and current population projections are beginning to look at factors beyond the normal historic trends. What if the long-range climate change projections for the various regions of the country are accurate, and Oregon experiences an extraordinary surge in population beyond what we currently anticipate?

Some early projections show that the population of Oregon could increase to 6 million to 8 million in the next 30 years. Several years ago, Nohad Toulan, the late internationally renowned planner and longtime head of the Toulan School of Planning at Portland State University, noted that 80 percent of Oregon鈥檚 historic growth has always been concentrated in the Willamette Valley, and that if these higher projections are accurate, the valley could gain at least 2.5 million to 3 million new residents (more than the existing population of the Portland/Vancouver area)!

How will we accommodate that increase? I will share some thoughts on that next time.