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Last time I talked about the potential for significant population increases in Oregon in the next few decades. While no one can say for sure, of course, there is a growing concern among planners that we could see an acceleration of our historic growth rate as a result of the effects of climate change and resource constraints, particularly water, in other parts of the country.

So, how would we cope with 2 million to 3 million new residents in the Willamette Valley, and 500,000 more elsewhere in the next 50 years? There is no state plan for such an eventuality. We could just rely on the comprehensive plans of all cities and counties to figure out how to accommodate them. That is the default. But is that good enough?

The last time Oregonians felt under siege from population growth was the late 1960s, when Tom McCall was governor. He and others had the foresight then to develop a vision document (  for how the state should cope with a much larger population and still preserve its irreplaceable assets, particularly farm and forest lands.  That led to creation of the Oregon Planning Program in 1973, which has done a good job of directing growth since then.

But what we are facing now would put extraordinary political pressure on Oregon’s cities to individually plan for the coming growth. Now would be a good time to develop a new vision for Oregon’s future. By understanding the implications of various development options the state would be in a position to anticipate and direct growth appropriately.  Without finding a path of comprehensive and intentional growth management Oregon is very vulnerable once again to the political, fiscal and social pressures to open our precious land resources to rampant development.