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Oregon school districts planning for growth face a delicate task balancing demographics, politics and money before asking voters to approve property tax increases to build new schools.

For an illustrative example, look to Hillsboro School District.

The district is seeing strong growth, particularly in single-family homes, in areas around North Plains and South Hillsboro. Those families will eventually send their children to Hillsboro schools.

Hillsboro School District has convened a bond advisory committee to look at what facilities the district needs and when the community will need them. Timing is critical: If Hillsboro waits too long, schools will be overcrowded. Yet if it builds too soon, schools could be left underutilized.

鈥淭here’s that fine line before really crowding your schools and working proactively to build schools,鈥� spokeswoman Beth Glaser said.

Hillsboro School District is tentatively looking to ask voters to approve funding for two to three new schools through a bond measure on the November 2017 or May 2018 ballot, Glaser said.

School districts across the state track a range of data to decide when to pursue money for a new school. Enrollment is the most important factor, but housing starts, population projections and even birth data from prior years can help predict enrollment.

Each district typically has a committee that evaluates facility needs. School staff members work with the committees, and the school board and superintendent, to plan for growth. Any major school construction requires a bond that is referred to voters’ ballots by school boards. When boards opt to do so, and how much money they ask for, requires them to delicately balance political needs and practical realities.

For Hillsboro, a future bond issue would most likely fund three new elementary schools 鈥� one in North Plains and two in South Hillsboro, an area where developers are building infrastructure ahead of master-planned housing developments. Reed’s Crossing, led by developer Newland Communities, could eventually encompass 4,000 housing units.

Other developments could double that number, bringing many new families to the area, Glaser said. The district anticipates about 600 new housing units per year will be constructed in South Hillsboro over the next decade or so.

Then there’s North Plains.

鈥淣orth Plains is one of the areas where we’re looking at putting forth a recommendation for a new elementary school, and that’s because of the building that’s currently under way,鈥� Glaser said. 鈥淲e simply don’t have enough capacity up there in our one elementary school for all of those students.鈥�

Hillsboro School District anticipates asking for about $300 million in bond funding, Glaser said. The bond measure, if approved, would keep property taxes roughly equal to current levels because of a 鈥渘atural drop鈥� in tax levels, she said. In part, that reflects a political calculation.

鈥淚f we don’t fill that gap with another bond ask, rates will drop by about $1.25 (per $1,000 of assessed value), and it’s pretty difficult once they drop to ask voters to raise it again,鈥� she said.

Hillsboro School District serves more than 20,000 students in 25 elementary schools, four middle schools and four high schools. The district has no immediate need for additional middle or high schools, Glaser said.

Bend and surrounding communities are also experiencing strong growth. Bend-La Pine Schools, a district that serves Bend, La Pine and Sunriver, plans to build four new elementary schools, one middle school and two high schools by 2035, said Mike Tiller, the district’s executive director of facilities.

鈥淭he most immediate need on that list is a high school,鈥� said Brad Henry, Bend-La Pine’s chief operations and financial officer. 鈥淥ur high schools are currently at capacity (and) projected to go over capacity next year.鈥�

Bend-La Pine officials use population projections from Portland State University, along with internal enrollment data, to gauge future growth. The district looks at birth data from five years prior to estimate kindergarten enrollment.

This fall, the district saw overall enrollment jump by 500 students, or nearly 3 percent.

鈥淚t’s fast growth, which is good,鈥� Henry said. 鈥淚t allows us to offer more programs. There are some challenges that come with it and most of (the challenges) are around facilities.鈥�

Fall 2016 enrollment represented the strongest annual growth since 1991, Tiller said.

鈥淲e’re seeing growth in our schools across all grades, which suggests people are moving into the area,鈥� he said.

The Bend district’s Sites and Facilities Committee is expected to bring a recommendation to the school board soon with a plan for a bond to pay for the next five to seven years of construction.

鈥淲e’re not quite to a point where we know the timeline yet, but there will be something that goes to the board this calendar year,鈥� Henry said.

Portland Public Schools has faced declining enrollment for years. The district is focused on renovating existing buildings rather than new construction, spokesman Jon Coney said.

鈥淥pening new schools hasn’t really been on our radar screen,鈥� he said.