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By Andrew Selsky

The Associated Press

A river on fire with millions of gallons of spilled oil, jet fuel and gasoline. An environmental disaster ranking with the worst in America. No fuel for a state trying to recover from a major earthquake.

Scientists say Oregon faces a potential nightmare scenario unless work is done to fortify its main fuel storage facility against a major earthquake, which will come sooner or later.

More than 90 percent of the state鈥檚 liquid fuels are stored at the Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub, along a 6-mile stretch of the Willamette River in northwest Portland. This week, Oregon lawmakers began taking steps to compel the owners and operators of the facility鈥檚 aging storage tanks to make them earthquake resistant.

A 聽commissioned by the city of Portland and Multnomah County noted the hub is built on soils subject to liquefaction in an earthquake. That means the water-saturated sediment would temporarily lose strength and act as a fluid.

The industrial area contains 46 large, above-ground fuel tanks as well as a liquefied natural gas storage facility and pipelines, according to a state report. Some fuel tanks are more than 100 years old, and most were built at least 50 years ago.

The study estimated that a major earthquake affecting the Cascadia subduction zone would result in 95 million to 194 million gallons of fuels gushing from the tanks. It would flow from the Willamette River into the nearby Columbia River and, unless contained, would reach the Pacific Ocean 鈥� about 100 miles to the northwest.

The predicted damage is on par with the greatest environmental disaster in U.S. history, when BP鈥檚 Deepwater Horizon drilling rig exploded in 2010, spilling at least 134 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

鈥淭he fuel releases are likely to cause explosions and fires,鈥� the Oregon researchers wrote. 鈥淚f the fire spreads to other properties there are very large threats to human life, safety, physical structures and natural resources.鈥�

California is known for earthquakes, especially along the San Andreas Fault. But experts predict one of the world鈥檚 biggest earthquakes could occur any day along the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs from offshore Northern California, Oregon and Washington state to Canada. The last time a major Cascadia earthquake occurred was in 1700, with an estimated magnitude 9.

Oregon officials recognize the threat, and have taken steps to mitigate it.

Great Oregon ShakeOut Day is held annually to encourage Oregonians to learn how to react to an earthquake. Gov. Kate Brown frequently reminds people to maintain an emergency kit with at least two weeks鈥� worth of food, water and other necessities. Tsunami-zone warning signs dot coastal highways.

In 1995, the Legislature banned construction of certain emergency infrastructure and other public facilities in tsunami inundation zones. But it repealed the measure in 2019 after coastal legislators said that without new emergency services buildings, coastal residents and businesses won鈥檛 be able to get property insurance, which would cause property values to fall.

Oregon聽last year joined an 聽operated by the U.S. Geological Survey. It uses seismographic sensors to detect significant earthquakes quickly so alerts reach smartphones and people can seek cover. Washington state and California also use the system.

An earthquake of at least magnitude 7 has a 37 percent chance of occurring off the Oregon coast in the next 50 years, according to Chris Goldfinger, an earthquake expert and professor at Oregon State University. A magnitude 9 quake has a 10 percent to 15 percent chance of occurring in that period, he said. The largest quake ever recorded was magnitude 9.5; it hit southern Chile in 1960.

鈥淲e鈥檙e living with a ticking time bomb,鈥� state Sen. Michael Dembrow, who is from Portland and is a chief sponsor of the bill, said Monday during the Senate Committee on Energy and Environment public hearing on the measure.

Dembrow said every time he drives by the storage tanks, he has a 鈥渘ightmare vision that the earthquake strikes, as we know it will, and we elected officials are left having to ask ourselves: Why did we ignore the warnings?鈥�

鈥淚f that occurs, how do we live with ourselves?鈥� he asked fellow lawmakers.

Two dozen others have joined him in sponsoring the bill.

Leaders of the American Society of Civil Engineers鈥� Oregon branch testified that it鈥檚 critically important that the facility be made seismically resilient. They noted that after a major earthquake, fuel will be needed to power generators, equipment and vehicles for rescue and emergency personnel.

All jet fuel for Portland International Airport is stored at the Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub. Without it, planes bringing aid to Oregon would be unable to refuel.

Mike Harryman, appointed by the governor as Oregon鈥檚 first state resilience officer, is tasked with preparing that for a Cascadia earthquake. Oregon will feel three punches, he said: from the quake itself, the tsunami and 鈥渢he disaster鈥� at the fuel hub.

鈥淭o date I鈥檓 unaware that any seismic mitigation has been started at the site by any of the owners and/or operators,鈥� he said at the hearing.

The bill requires owners or operators of bulk oil and liquid fuel terminals to conduct and submit seismic vulnerability assessments by June 1, 2024, to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, which would review and approve them. The owners and operators would then implement a seismic risk plan approved by department.

鈥淗ow they do the work and on what timetable isn鈥檛 yet clear,鈥� Dembrow stated in an email.

Jessica Spiegel of the Western States Petroleum Association, a nonprofit that represents companies involved in the petroleum industry in five western states including Oregon, noted that the bill entails large fees but that federal funds may be available to mitigate them.

As fees are established, 鈥渟ome understanding of business needs in the state鈥� should be considered, she said.