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McALLEN, Texas 鈥� One morning in mid-November, Mario Guerrero, the executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, was checking a group chat on his phone when a video popped up. It showed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents detaining workers who were pouring cement in front of a home in an idyllic neighborhood in the Rio Grande Valley, he said.

For nearly a year, Guerrero had seen similar videos or read news reports of arrests and raids. This was the last straw.

The raids and the specter of more to come have struck fear in聽construction聽workers, causing many to stay home. ICE agents have arrested more than 9,100 people in South Texas 鈥� nearly one-fifth of all such arrests in the entire state since Trump took office, according to government data provided by ICE in response to a FOIA request to the Deportation Data Project and analyzed by The Texas Tribune.

Without enough workers,聽construction聽has slowed, sending a ripple effect throughout the economy. Economists suggest that this will drive housing costs up 鈥� even as Texas officials focus on bringing such costs down.

Later on that November day when Guerrero viewed the video, he posted on the builders association’s Facebook page one of his own. He addressed the聽construction聽community, local elected officials and the public.

鈥淚 would like to start off this video by saying that I am an American citizen, and it’s crazy that we’re living in times where you actually have to state that,鈥� Guerrero began.

He said he believes law enforcement personnel should do their jobs but added that he was disturbed by the fact that ICE agents were operating without arrest warrants 鈥� which is legal for them 鈥� and detaining people who have proper authorization.

鈥淚t’s what’s happening across the Rio Grande Valley at聽construction聽sites,鈥� he said.

He ended the video by calling on local leaders to attend a meeting later that month to discuss the ongoing challenges facing the聽construction聽industry because of ICE raids.

鈥淚t’s time that we have our leaders show up,鈥� he said. 鈥淥ur people are hurting, our businesses are hurting. There’s no labor.鈥�

Guerrero’s candor about how the聽construction聽industry is suffering because of ICE raids grabbed the attention of the Rio Grande Valley community. For months, residents openly assumed that the聽construction聽industry was being negatively impacted but had yet to hear anyone in the industry officially acknowledge it. Data from the Federal Reserve of Dallas shows a 5 percent drop in聽construction聽jobs during the third quarter of 2025 鈥� the single largest dip in jobs in the region.

ICE did not respond to an interview request or list of questions sent by The Texas Tribune.

Guerrero, via his comments, opened the door for others to finally speak openly about the issue, and that caught the attention of state and federal officials.

鈥楥onstruction聽can’t continue’

When the day of the meeting arrived, more than 380 people filled the room at the Brookhaven Event Center in Pharr. It was packed with people who worked in nearly every facet of development and聽construction, including concrete, lumber, real estate, and lending. A handful of elected officials also attended.

During the roughly 90 minutes that they met, those industry representatives took turns to discuss the hits their businesses had taken because workers were too frightened that ICE would show up at聽construction聽sites. They also warned of how the larger Rio Grande Valley economy would suffer if the ICE arrests didn’t stop.

鈥淏usiness is down significantly,鈥� Ronnie Cavazos, board president of the South Texas Builders Association, told the crowd. 鈥淚f we continue on this trajectory, we will see a lot of businesses fail.鈥�

Isaac Smith, a co-owner of Matt’s Building Materials, said his family’s stores were struggling to get lumber out the door.

鈥淚f job sites are getting raided, at any level, the聽construction聽can’t continue,鈥� Smith told the Tribune. 鈥淚t’s not a fun situation to be in.鈥�

Smith said his sales had declined at a rate of double digits since the ICE operations began. He’s also seen an increase in late payments from customers with a credit line from the store.

鈥淭hat takes an adverse effect on our cash flow and how we operate 鈥� how we manage expenses, and money coming in, and money going out,鈥� Smith said.

鈥榃e wish it would stop’

During the Nov. 17 meeting, Cavazos took a moment to bring attention to the people directly affected by the raids 鈥斅爐he workers.

鈥淟et me tell you about immigrants in this country,鈥� Cavazos said in his remarks. 鈥淣obody believes in the American dream more than them. The immigrant should be celebrated, treated with dignity and allowed to work and provide for their families.鈥�

Every few days, videos of ICE operations gain widespread attention. Jesus, a 42-year-old聽construction聽worker who asked to be identified by only his first name because he and his wife are undocumented, said he and his fellow workers keep a lookout for ICE when they’re out on a job 鈥� if they go to work.

Jesus has drastically decreased the number of jobs he takes 鈥� only enough to ensure his family can survive.

鈥淲e hardly work anymore; we’re afraid to go out into the street,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don’t look for work because we’re scared.鈥�

He estimates he brings in about 60 percent less than before the raids began. He and his wife have four children.

鈥淲e wish it would stop, but we don’t control these things,鈥� Jesus said. 鈥淭he government does.鈥�

Unintended consequences

With fewer聽construction聽workers available to build homes, delays in building could result in a shortage of homes and cause home prices to rise.

It would not be the first time that changes in immigration policy could be at least a partial factor in housing unaffordability.

Researchers found that under an Obama-era immigration enforcement program, deportations led to a shortage of labor in the聽construction聽sector and, therefore, fewer new homes.

The program, called Secure Communities, was launched during the George W. Bush administration but was expanded under former President Barack Obama, leading to more than 300,000 deportations from 2008 to 2013.

Nationwide, during that span, there was a 2 to 3 percent decrease in construction labor and a 5.7 percent decrease in new聽construction. The prices of new structures increased by 4.4 percent, according to Dayin Zhang, an assistant professor at the Wisconsin School of Business.

鈥淚t is difficult to forecast the future, as many economic conditions have changed over the past two decades,鈥� Zhang said. 鈥淗owever, given the current pace of deportations, it is reasonable to expect that shortages in聽construction聽labor and housing will become more severe than the period of Secure Communities.鈥�

How that might translate to today will likely depend on the total number of people deported under the Trump administration. It claims more than 600,000 have been deported since Trump took office in January, though immigration advocates have questioned the accuracy of the numbers.

Thrust into the spotlight

Since the meeting, Guerrero has received an unusual amount of attention for someone who usually stays off social media.

His video grabbed the attention of U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat, who asked to meet. The meeting went well, Guerrero said, noting that Cuellar expressed a desire to bring awareness to the issue at the congressional level.

On Dec. 10, Guerrero attended a private meeting with Gov. Greg Abbott when he swung through the Valley to champion his proposals to cut property taxes.

At the end of the meeting, Guerrero introduced himself to Abbott, but the governor appeared to already know him. During their brief exchange, Guerrero handed him a letter and invited him to another builders’ meeting in January.

Abbott’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Guerrero has gotten some negative feedback, too. People have left messages on social media accusing him of wanting to exploit cheap labor. He strongly pushed back against that accusation, adding that entry-level laborers are paid the equivalent of $15 per hour.

Commenters stated that he should be prosecuted or investigated and told him he shouldn’t be calling out local elected officials.

Guerrero isn’t backing down.

For the January meeting, he has invited more elected officials at all levels of government. He hopes these ongoing public gatherings will bring greater awareness to their plight.

鈥淧eople maybe don’t understand the magnitude of what’s happening,鈥� Guerrero said. 鈥淏ut that’s where we have to come together as human beings, and we need to be a little cognizant about the real situation that we’re facing.鈥�

Editor’s note: This article first appeared in The Texas Tribune and Corpus Christi Caller-Times and then was distributed on the USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect.