91视频

As the person in charge of land acquisition and project planning for Oregon-grown home builder , Wally Remmers, the company’s co-founder and vice president, needs to keep a close eye on the residential real estate market.

Right now, his eye is on the North Bethany area.

鈥淲e’re really refocusing on concentrating our growth and our development into the Washington County areas now,鈥� Remmers said. 鈥淭he combination of great schools, good land holdings that we have and all the job growth that’s in Washington County, it’s just been a good situation for us and one of the reasons we’re focusing on it.鈥�

To help narrow that focus, Arbor announced in December that it was selling much of its surplus properties 鈥� in areas like Wilsonville, West Linn, Sunnyside, Tigard and Tualatin 鈥� to two of its competitors, and .

Remmers said the company has 2,600 lots in Washington County: Construction is under way on a group of 500 lots, two groups will be released to the market early in 2012 and work is expected to start on four more groups next summer. Arbor also plans to build 193 luxury apartments in North Bethany next year.

The plan is aggressive, considering the general state of the industry.

Prices drop, sales increase

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 鈥� a leading measure of U.S. home prices 鈥� 19 of the 20 metropolitan cities covered saw home prices decrease from September to October 2011. In the Portland-metro area, values dropped 0.5 percent in October and were down 4.7 from a year ago.

Additionally, Portland State University’s Center for Real Estate third-quarter housing report found that the median sales price of homes in the Portland area had declined 6.1 percent from September 2010 to $222,500.

But while prices across the board are down, activity is up.

PSU’s quarterly report also found that the number of transactions in the Portland-metro area had increased 14.8 percent over the year, while the United States Department of Commerce reported that new residential sales across the nation were up 8.9 percent from October 2010. Commerce also reported that housing starts were up 24.3 percent from November 2010, and that the national market was sitting on a six-month supply of inventory.

For Remmers, that’s a clear signal that it’s time to get busy.

鈥淭he real significant thing in this market is that we’re sitting on a six-month supply of inventory and we’ve been there for some time,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat’s down significantly from what it was at one point in time.鈥�

Remmers said a six-month housing supply represents a good market balance for buyers and sellers. Adding to that mix, he said, is the fact that the glut of foreclosed and distressed homes was also starting to thin out 鈥� foreclosure filings in Oregon decreased 36.6 percent from September 2010, according to PSU’s housing report.

The land crunch

Compounding all of that is a looming land shortage that Remmers believes will hit the Portland market late in 2012.

鈥淚t’s going to be an interesting time coming up here because when you say you want to do a subdivision, you don’t just walk out there and start pushing dirt around,鈥� Remmers said of the lengthy application process that precludes any potential housing community. 鈥淚t’s going to take a while to bring land to the market, even when people decide to do it, and there’s not a lot of movement, there’s not a lot of applications being submitted for new subdivisions, even yet.鈥�

Remmers said the land shortage is because few developers were able to secure financing this year.

He said Arbor hasn’t had that problem, but it has felt the pinch.

When the recession hit, the company went from selling as many as 850 homes in 2005 to as few as 217 homes in 2010. The company responded by shrinking its operation, which allowed it to cut expenses and pay off debt.

Remmers said Arbor’s ability to stay nimble has given it an advantage over larger, slower-moving, publicly traded companies and has helped it maintain access to financing.

鈥淚 think that helped us a lot back in the boom years when things were really starting to expand and I think it’s helped us to shrink as well,鈥� he said.

Another change the company has had to make is in the way it markets and sells its homes.

Whereas 80 percent of its business formerly came from plans and specs that people ordered after walking through model homes, 80 percent now comes from spec homes, in which the company makes the decisions about things like carpet color, countertop material and the type of window blinds. Remmers said he thinks that trend represents consumers’ general nervousness about the housing market.

鈥淧eople want to see it, they want to buy it and they want to get a loan on it right now,鈥� he said.

At least, that’s the company’s hope, and it’s gearing up for the crunch.

鈥淭here just isn’t going to be the supply out there where the buyers can shop and take their time and dicker,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey’re going to start seeing houses selling out from under them. They’re going to start seeing multiple offers coming in on houses. That’s going to change the dynamics of the business.鈥�